BJP or Congress: Who will win the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, form the next government at the Centre?

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Speculations have already begun as to who is going to form the government after the upcoming 2014 general elections?

The recent survey conducted by AC-Nielsen that was shown on TV channel, 'ABP News' (formerly Star), has led to a fresh debate over prospects of the two major coalitions.

Whether it's going to be Congress-led UP that is projecting its youthful face Rahul Gandhi [along with Manmohan Singh as future PM once again] after having ruled the country for the two consecutive terms or BJP-led NDA which is banking on Narendra Modi?

The results of the survey [opinion poll] are quite interesting. It was conducted between May 1 and 10 and it predicts the number of seats to various parties, if the polls were held now, given the current mood of the electorate in the country.

I saw the survey on TV and here are my observations. First, let's see what are the results of this survey. Have a look at the figures and then we can analyse. First, Uttar Pradesh [UP] that sends the maximum number of seats [80] to the Parliament:

Samajwadi Party {SP] 24
Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] 23
Bahujan Samaj Party [BSP] 21
Congress 6
Rashtriya Lok Dal [RLD] 5

For, Maharashtra [48], the statistics suggest:

Congress 12
BJP 17
Shiv Sena 12
NCP 4
MNS 1

West Bengal [42] is another major state.

Left Front [CPM-CPI-Forward Bloc] 18
Trinamool Congress [TMC] 14
Congress 9
BJP 0

Bihar [40] is also a key state and any major change in number of seats can turn the tables for either of the coalitions. The premise was that JDU and BJP are still together here while Congress and RJD are not in an alliance. (If there is an alliance between Congress, RJD & LJP, it'll be bad for NDA, suggests the survey)

JDU 24
BJP 10
Congress 3
RJD 2

In Delhi, the survey gives five seats to BJP and two to Congress. What about Aam Admi Party (AAP)? Zilch! The survey shows that as per the mood in the country, NDA will be ahead of UPA. The bigger coalition is more likely to form the government, isn't it?

Predicting the Picture: How the Lok Sabha 2014 would look like:

NDA 206
UPA 136
Left 34
REST 167

So shall we accept this survey and the projections?

The survey shows Congress' vote share at 20% and that of BJP at over 31%. Really! That seems a bit far-fetched. Congress is definitely not having a great time due to the scams but these figures are still not too convincing.

Even if BJP gets 206 seats, will it be able to find the allies? It must be remembered that this survey shows the figure of REST [THIRD FRONT] at 167 and along with Left Front their strength will be over 200. So apart from NDA and UPA, there will be a huge block, and this hints at a real 'khichdi' or the fractured mandate.

What can be faulty in these projections

The survey shows Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi enjoying 36% support for the post of Prime Minister (PM) compared to Rahul Gandhi (13%), Manmohan Singh (12%), Mulayam Singh (5%), Nitish Kumar (3%) and Sushma Swaraj (2%). [Rahul plus Manmohan makes it 25, which is not too bad, given that it is urban centric poll]

As always, the surveys are mostly conducted in Cities. In urban areas, BJP has traditionally been strong and hence they surveys often go in BJP's favour. In UP, the BJP may not get as much seats. For the last 20 years, such polls have generally given more seats to BJP.

In last election, all channels predicted 140 seats for SP in UP Assembly but it went on capturing more than 200 seats in the Vidhan Sabha. The reason is that a section of SP or BSP voter isn't as vocal about his preference. Muslims often say that they would vote for Congress but end up voting for the third parties just like Dalits voted en masse for BSP but not many of them accepted it in front of others.

We keep hearing a lot about NaMo factor but Congress won the Karnataka election. It also won the polls in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Clearly, the corporate support and the excessive hype in media hasn't materialised as much on the ground.

What can happen in a year?

Elections are almost a year from now. In the current situation, Congress is not going to have Parliamentary elections along with Assembly elections by year end. The 16th General Elections are likely to be held in May 2014.

By then, it expects to gain by Right to Food  Bill and other popular schemes. It has changed its campaign style also. Have you noticed the recent advertisements on TV, targeting the young generation? On social media i.e. Twitter and Facebook, it has locked horns with RSS and BJP that once ruled online opinion.

Of course, there is a disillusionment [largely in urban India] with regard to Congress due to a spate of scams. It is also battling incumbency, which will be a major factor. But one must remember that despite all these factors Congress has consistently been winning state elections.

The BJP has its own woes

The problem for the BJP is that it can't just rely on Congress doing bad. The BJP has to increase its number of seats significantly. Where will it get them? In MP, Chhattisgarh, it has reached its peak and the scenario isn't as rosy for it. Party workers openly say that the tally will go down in these two states.

In Karnataka, it has no good prospects either. If Rajnath Singh fails to revive BJP in UP, the figure of 206 looks far ahead. Congress may lose seats in Andhra Pradesh. It is going to a be vital state. But will Nara Chandrababu Naidu ally with the BJP. No chance.

Can there be such a major shift?

The 2009 elections had given a mandate to Congress-led UPA. Congress had more than 200 seats while BJP had just 115. Can there be a complete reversal? If it happens, then only the BJP can hope to get more allies and be able to form the government.

If the BJP alone gets 180 plus and with its allies, reaches 220-225, then it will be in a position to form the government. The SP-BSP may have 40-50 seats, and along with Left, RJD and a few small parties, make it 100 seats. It is this vote coming from UP, West Bengal or Southern India which hurts the BJP-led coalition, the most.

The 'key' States and the parties to watch out

Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Tamil Nadu will be the key states. J Jayalalitha's AIADMK can play a major role. If she manages to win Tamil Nadu, then BJP can expect to garner her support. Not Naidu, but Jagan Mohan Reddy is another person who may go to the BJP. The role of BJD supremo Navin Patnayak will also be crucial.

Can West Bengal's voter again turn towards the Left? There are several questions. The voters' mood will be more visible by the year-end. The Left is against Congress. The 'secular' SP and BSP are rivals but at the Centre both these anti-Congress parties, also support the UPA.

Majority of voter lives in Rural India, not Cities

The agencies conducting these polls remain urban centric. Less than 1/3rd of constituencies were touched. Just 33,000 voters were quizzed. The sample size needs to be much bigger in a country like India. Here people play games with the surveyors [or questionnaires] and even give wrong answers. The feeling is that, 'Why should I tell them what's in my mind?'

India is too big and complex. It is next to impossible for any mathematical formula to make a guess or predit the results at the national level. Here, there are four and even five cornered contests in many constituencies, and people don't vote for a Prime Minister, rather, they go for party. Predictions of victory and loss are really tough.

While the BJP and Congress have now formed a mindset that it's time that either of them should govern the nation, not these smaller parties, reality is different. In case, both Congress and BJP remain under 150 or around, you can not rule out chance of Mayawati or J Jayalalitha, emerging the dark horse.

In fact, where the Congress is losing, the BJP is not gaining. The gainer is a regional party. An astonishing 47% vote is going to the regional parties, says R Jagannathan, in an Analysis here.

Let's wait and watch.  

Criticism of Saudi Arabia regime either for destruction of Islamic heritage or on human rights, other issues remains a taboo in Media!

Just a few days back a group of leading Shia clerics held a press conference in Lucknow. Amongst other issues, they spoke on the continuous destruction of Islamic heritage in Saudi Arab.

The news was almost blacked out in media except a small and different sort of version which appeared in a few Urdu newspapers.

This is not the first time that such a thing has happened but it is definitely disturbing. Can't you criticise a government or a regime? Is there anything wrong with that? Of course not. It's an individuals right.

In this press conference, scholars expressed their opinion about the Bashar Al Assed regime's excesses in Syria, castigated the Taliban and also expressed their apprehensions about certain issues regarding Saudi authorities. One may or may not agree to them but they are surely entitled to speak their mind. 

1. When Muslim minority expects media to listen to its grievances in a Hindu majority country, why shouldn't we at least hear the concerns of a minority among Muslims--the Shias. This is a strange paradox. I surely fail to understand it. Even English, Hindi media avoids it.

2. I am proud that in my country, a large section of Hindus and other communities speak in favour of Muslims when Babri Masjid was demolished. But it is embarrassing that mosques, more than thousand years old that have link with earliest Islamic personalities including the Prophet's family or companions, get destroyed without whimper in this 'Islamic country' under the garb of 'expansion' or 'development'.

May be a few things could be tolerated but they are not accountable to anyone, it seems. Had it not been Turkey putting its foot down and insisting that Saudis adhere to the past agreements, the situation could have been even worse.

3. On one hand, the Saudi government has done a great job in ensuring that millions of Haj pilgrims from across the world, get facilities. The infrastructure in the holy cities of Mecca and Medinah has been improved vastly in the last few decades. For this they ought to be praised.

4. I am a Sunni and don't have any close Shia friend either. But this muzzling of any dissenting voice seems odd. Saudi Arab is a monarchy though kingship is not in sync with Islamic principles. For a non-Arab it may not be too relevant whether they are monarchs or champions of democracy and justive but for the fact that the same regime then preaches and imposes rules and bizarre codes on citizens as per its own interpretations.

5. Sauds changed the name of Hejaz or Arab to 'Saudi' Arab, ie, the Arab of a family--the Sauds. The Saudi state and its allies in Gulf always seem more concerned about their own hold to power [naturally], as also the regional balance of power, even though, they are aware that they enjoy a clear authority and [will always have] because of holy sites. Still, they remain obsessed with the idea to contain Iran.

6. Because of the custodianship of the holy Islamic sites, they get enormous respect which they will always have but it doesn't mean that they can not be criticised for their erratic actions. Strangely, there is a silence among Muslims when it comes to Saudi policies, either with regard to women which are clearly divergent from the spirit of Islam, to the way they have destroyed Islamic heritage in the holy land.

7. In fact, apologists would be quick to say, 'See how much they have done for Muslims', or 'They are giving more rights to women' [Inayat, aapka Shukriya Janab] and that 'millions are employed there'. The Sheikhs' political positions is also often in contrast with views of an ordinary person on the Muslim street.

8. The way buildings were destroyed is well-known but kept hush hush. Little is discussed or spoken about in Urdu or Muslim media either. In fact, an effort seems to be going on to put Saudi sheikhs at a much higher pedestal. Is it because Petro dollars [Riyal] dazzle the eyes and then nothing else is visible?

9. From the days, when centuries old inscriptions of 'Ya Muhammad' PBUH محمد  were changed to 'Ya Majeed' مجید [One of the names of Allah] with just a few dots here and there, to razing umpteen houses of Sahaba, the demolitions, the destruction of Jannatul-Baqi, and even the ultimate fear, we have seen Saudi regimes' acts.

10. For years, this blog has not taken sectarian positions. I still don't. I have not in support of any sect nor against it. But regimes and its policies must be censured. This is no blasphemy. When either Shias or any other group speaks, why they are not heard? Muslim mind should not be servile or slavish to a regime. At least, the genuine concerns of the Muslims worldwide and their groups should be voiced, not suppressed.

If you venerate Saudi rulers and blindly support their each and every act, you are free to do so, but just remember they are not divine. Its a person's right to idolize the 'Is Zameen ke Badshah' and differ with the rest, just like many disagree with the Saudi regime on a host of issues. That's all.

TV channels injecting hate in society, harming national interest: Created hysteria to gain TRPs over Sarabjit Singh's incarceration and death

Sarabjit Singh's death was an extremely sad incident but the manner in which News channels used the story of an Indian prisoner lodged in Pakistani jail, to rouse passions much before his death [and even afterwards], needs to be addressed.

1. Firstly, the same TV channels never showed any attention when Indian prisoners were released from Pakistani jail only a few months back. The 10 Indian prisoners were released from Karachi's Landhi jail and came here through Wagah.

2. When 311 Indian fishermen were released by Pakistan some months back [in June 2012] there was no coverage in Indian media. Shouldn't there have been live coverage or TV crews ready to get their reaction? Our jingoistic TV channels and even newspapers largely ignored this news. India also releases Pakistani prisoners quite often. But do we see such reports?

3. All goodwill gestures either by India or Pakistan are never shown. Only the bad news  gets telecast. As a result, the perception is created that Pakistan is really our worst enemy and can do nothing good. [Perhaps, channels in Pakistan do the same about India] This hurts our diplomacy and government level efforts.

The cacophony wrongly gives impression that our government is weak and also sends an incorrect message. This puts undue pressure on the government. Rather than peace efforts, this jingoism goes against the interests of everybody.

4. Who fought for Sarabjit Singh all these years? We forget that in Pakistan there were activists who kept demanding his release as well as other prisoners. It is forgotten that Pakistan has a person like Ansar Burney, a former minister, who has the guts to constantly speak for human rights. How may do we have among our senior politicians in India?

5. We forget that lawyers in Pakistan were fighting his case all along. In India, we hound and mock at people who are peaceniks. TV anchors make fun of those who speak sense. Perhaps, Sarabjit would have been alive had the channels not created this hysteria. As per reports, there was hope that after election, the new government would release him.

Surjeet Singh was freed from a Pakistan jail last year

6. Justice Marktandey Katju had earlier also appealed to Pakistan government to release Indian prisoners, and it was his efforts that a Pakistani Dr Khalil Chishti was released. It is goodwill and diplomacy that works, not hate. Hate only begets hate.

7. In the clamour over Sarabjit Singh, our media forgot that sometime back Surjeet Singh was also released from Pakistani prison. There must be ways to secure release through diplomatic channels and other non-government efforts, rather than shouting on TV and preaching hatred. There are numerous others rightly or wrongly convicted in jails but there is no 'TV focus' on their release.

8. Sarabjit Singh's death is unfortunate. If it was a case of mistaken identity, it is even more sad. But the truth is that he was convicted of bomb blasts by a court. In India, what we do to terror convicts? Its not just about  Ajmal Kasab, we also hanged an 'Indian', Afzal Guru, without informing his family. But in Sarabjit's case, he was given funeral with state honours. His kin get job and huge amount of cash.

Pakistan Muslim League leaders on Diwali, seek 'ashirwad'

9. It is a fact that news channels created such a situation that the entire nation was fuming. There was absolute hatred for Pakistan.

In this tsunami of hate, a Pakistani prisoner Sanaullah perished. He was killed in the Jammu jail. Was his death reported by media in the same manner, here or there? Did his kin get any compensation!

10. Few among our TV channels and mainstream papers have their correspondents in Pakistan. We only show stories on our channels that are about the bad aspects of the neighbouring country. Why we never see any other aspect. Why these channels never show Diwali, Holi celebrations in Pakistan? Or any other story except the ones we see that focus on discord and disharmony.

11. The reality is that negative news is carried and amplified to such an extent that it regularly puts our own government on a sticky wicket. Can spies be owned up? No. Stupid TV anchors who 'demand answers' on prime time news, don't realise how their actions, are hurting lives of people and our international relationships.

12. Rather than being journalists, they act as Generals ready for war, even going beyond them in rhetoric. By just focusing on negative, they jeopardise all the peace efforts from both sides. For them news of Pakistani soldiers taking care of a minor girl who had strayed into their territory but taken care of and sent back safely, is not news.

The TV channels love war like situations without realising the effect it has on a large number of people. They arouse sentiments of people by harping on particular issues. It seems that for them, no 'other side' of the story exists.

The goodwill measures taken by both countries should be shown on TV and they must be appreciated, as they can go a long way helping in release of other prisoners and also for resolving other contentious issues in the long run. Unfortunately, these channels try to mould public opinion in the wrong way.

This is the biggest irony of Indian media. Can the state allow the channels to hijack the agenda just because they feel a particular issue can bring more eyeballs and hence more revenue? Time to ponder for all of us.

Muslim boy emerges topper in engineering entrance exam in Madhya Pradesh

When the results of the engineering entrance examination conducted by Professional Examination Board (PEB), Madhya Pradesh, were announced, Moin Khan emerged on top of the merit list.

Khan, who hails from Indore, secured 187 out of 200 marks. That he came first in the Pre-Engineering Proficiency Test (PEPT, also called PET) examination, in which more than 1,00,000 students participated, is impressive indeed.

It also signals that Muslims in Madhya Pradesh (MP) who were comparatively behind other states, are now making fast strides in education. While a student emerging as topper has a symbolic value, it also inspires thousands of other students.

They also feel that if they can put in hard work and labour, they can succeed and achieve high marks in the competitive exams and hence have a good career. Though Muslim youths have been performing well in exams in other states, the scene was not too good in MP.

But in the last two years, there has been a marked change. Not just High School and Intermediate, Muslim students are now figuring at the top in the results of competition exams also. Madhya Pradesh is the second largest state in the country in terms of area.

As far as population is concerned, it is much bigger than France & Britain, and not far behind Germany. It's definitely an achievement to outperform lakhs of students. Four among the ten youths in merit list of the PET were from Indore.

Moin Khan loves cricket and idolizes Virat Kohli for his passion towards the game. Apart from Pre Engineering Test (PET), a Muslim student, Nazar Mohammad, appeared in the top ten list in the Pre-Pharmacy Test (PPT) Exam, the results of which have also been announced. Nazar Mohammad hails from Rajgarh near Indore.

Read an earlier post on Muslim Students Excelling in Competitive Exams

Remembering Syed Amin Ashraf: Selection of couplets of the prominent Aligarh-based Urdu poet

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A few months have passed but literary world is still in a state of mourning due to the demise of prominent Urdu poet Syed Amin Ashraf.

Ashraf, 80, was a leading Urdu poet, who avoided popular 'mushairas' and this is perhaps the reason that he didn't get the fame which he deserved.

But his command over language and idiom, had made him one of the foremost 'shayars' of the era in the country.

shahar-dar-shahar shab-e-taar* ka pheraa hoga

ham na honge, to andheraa hi andheraa hoga

[Syed Amin Ashraf]

Syed Amin Ashraf was born in Kachhauchha Sharif in UP, on June 20, 1930. A professor of English in Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), Urdu poetry was his first love. Though he began writing poetry in the decade of fifties, his first collection of poetry [divan] was published only in 2000.

This suggests how Ashraf sahab was indifferent towards publication of his own poetry.

In fact, he was the most important poet in the region. But he mostly remained confined to literary magazines and attended only select gatherings and 'mushairas'. Eminent Urdu writer Rashid Anwar Rashid recently wrote in Ajkal that, 'Only after Shaharyar's demise, Syed Amin Ashraf got recognition as the most important poet in Aligarh'.

Rashid is not off the mark. It is true that Shaharyar was a legend in his own right but his association with movies, particularly, his lyrics in Umraojan, made him a household name. Besides, Ashraf, wasn't a person who was interesting in pushing himself ahead. 

Some of his couplets:

halqa-e-shaam-o-sahar se nahiin jaane walaa

dard is deeda-e-tar se nahiiN jaane walaa

dekhtaa huuN muntashir shiiraaza-e-kaar-e-jahaaN

saa'at-e-naa-aafriida ki jhalak hai aur maiN

agar hazaar baras kii bhii zindagi hotii

to aarzuu yahii hotii ki aur jee lete

Ashraf sahab was aware of his literary standing. He said it it numerous couplets. In literary journal Kitabnuma, Dr Iffat Ara, wrote an obituary and she has also made a selection of his well-known 'ash'aar'.

munavvar aur mubham iste-aare dekh leta huuN

maiN sote jaagte, dilkash nazaare dekh letaa huuN

nasha-e-she'r uRaaye liye jaata hai mujhe

jaise rahvaar-e-sabaa, taKht-e-SulemaaN jaise

mauj-e-nasim ban ke ravaaN kuu-ba-kuu hue

ham bhii shariik-e-qaafla-e-rang-o-buu hue

Human beings don't get everything they wish for in life. An emotional, yet 'wazadar' person, he kept his pain to himself though it occasionally gets visible in his poetry. He did have a contended life and happy marital life. Yet, those who knew him, were aware about what he pined for and what kept him sad.

Jo milna hai vahi mil kar rahega

savaal-e-besh-o-kam bhii be-sabab hai

Amin Ashraf retired in 1990. It was only in later years that he took interest in publishing his works. Because of his command over Persian, one finds an enchanting quality in his couplets. Some of his couplets remind you of the legendary Irfan Siddiqui.

Ameen Ashraf maiN khud na-aashna lekin ye shohrat hai

butaan-e-shahar mein ek yaar-e-jaani main bhii rakhtaa huuN

koii sabab hai jo rahtaa hai Khauf-e-naadiida

muhiib saaya sa larzaaN hai farsh-e-jaaN par bhii

A 'qalandar' in the true sense, he lived life on his own terms.

ye maana aib bhii haiN saikRoN, kis meN nahiiN hote?

ameen ashraf, magar tujh sa qalandar ho nahiiN saktaa

[aib=weaknesses]

A couplet from the 'naat' genre:

Ye dil diwana hai uska, jo diwana Muhammad ka

AzaaN koii kahe, ruuh-e-Bilaali aa hii jaati hai

After his first collection 'Jaada-e-Shab' was published in 2000, the second divan 'Bahar Eejad' came out in 2007 and Qafas Rang appeared in 2011. He had a large social circle and not just because of poetry but also for his innate humane qualities that he would be remembered for a long time.

Yehi voh rishte haiN jo saath saath rahte haiN

Khud apnaa sayaa hai, yaadiN bhii haiN, muqaddar bhii

After his death in Aligarh on February 7 this year, across India programmes were held to pay homage to the poet. As per his wishes, his mortal remains were taken to his hometown and buried in the hospice premises of Sufi saint Makhdoom Ashraf Jahangir Samnani RH.

Syed Ameen Ashraf is no more. But his legacy lives on. He will always be remembered as a poet and an extraordinary human being. He always encouraged youngsters and treated everybody with respect. An extremely humble and modest person, he enriched classical Urdu poetry with his own experiences and unique idiom.

[*shab-e-taar; dark night, darkness]

[Several couplets have been taken from Dr Iffat Aara's article in Kitabnuma. Thanks are due to her. Photo courtesy Ibn Sina Academy of Medieval Medicine and Sciences]

Ulema raising voice on Indian Muslims' issues but not the educated elite and Muslim politicians

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All of a sudden thousands of Muslim students preparing for medical entrance examination suffered a jolt when they found that Urdu would no longer be medium of exam in the National Eligibility Entrance Test [NEET] which is held for admission into MBBS.

There are thousands of Urdu medium schools and colleges in Maharashtra apart from large number of Urdu medium students aspiring for the MBBS-BDS and allied medical course test from Karnataka, Jammu & Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh et al.

With their future in jeopardy and national media or political leadership showing no interest [not even aware of the extent of the problem], the Ulema who are seen as 'regressive', raised the issue. A petition was filed in the Supreme Court in this regard.

The Supreme Court subsequently issued notice to Ministry of Human Resources Development [MHRD], CBSE and Medical Council of India [MCI] on this issue. While Marathi medium students in junior colleges aspiring for exam is barely 350, Urdu students in Maharashtra's junior colleges number over 7,500.

Still, while Marathi remained a medium, Urdu was excluded arbitrarily. To understand the gravity of the situation and a sudden discriminatory order that affects democratic rights as well as causes children to suffer, one expects the so-called Muslim leaders viz. political leadership to move forward.

But nothing of that sort happened. The MCI rules clearly state that they couldn't disturb state policies as per which many regional languages other than English and Hindi are used as medium in entrance exam. When action had to be taken fast, once again Jamiat-i-Ulama realised the seriousness of the situation.

One will have to wait and see what happens, but the irony is that when educated elite is expected to act, they don't. In fact, they are least aware of real issues pertaining to Muslims. Ulema who get lot of blame often do their best in terms of PR skills as well [not the socialites, chatterati appearing on TV shows, paying lip service to Muslims]

TAKING STAND ON CIVIL RIGHTS

There are repeated examples. Can one forget the failure of Muslim politicians to address defaming of towns like Azamgarh turned Aatankgarh? It was then that the Ulema had boarded an entire train and had gone to Hyderabad to hold Anti-Terrorism Conference, denouncing the terrorists and making clear their stand.

Nobody had put onus on them. They did on their own. Such conferences were held across country. The Ulema are also involved in charity and welfare. They are also fighting dozens of cases in which innocent Muslim youths were falsely implicated.

The legal aid is being provided to these detainees about whom none among our political leadership paid attention. They were languishing in jails for years.

In many cases people couldn't come out of jail where they are lodged for minor offences just because they didn't have basic money to hire lawyer or to pay for the bail.

ULEMA SPEAK, NOT ELITE

Routinely, in cases of police excesses during riots or against individuals or even negative portrayal of Muslims, Ulema approach courts. Its satisfying to see institutional clergy being sensitive to the community and for its rights. The Indian Ulema [also Ulama] are secular to the hilt and most of them vouch for communal harmony and composite culture.

Perennially, it is the Ulema who keep approaching Prime Minister or Home Minister or the Minister for Minorities' Welfare, taking along delegations, speaking over various issues that keep coming up during the course of a year, seeking redressal of the issues.

The clergy also has the conviction to take politicians head-on. The recent example is that of Shia cleric Kalb-e-Sadiq who refused to be felicitated from UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, just two days back. Sadiq was upset because he felt SP hadn't fulfilled its promises made to Muslims.

In contrast, the 'elite' would be too happy to shake hand with a minister, and would come back with 'assurances', rather than a hard bargain. It is really a piquant situation. Now there is a strong Muslim middle-class in this country.

There are almost 60 minority Members of Parliament (MPs) in both the houses viz. Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha but they fail to even take up these issues. One doesn't expect them to represent just Muslims but once in a while, they should take stand in important matters.

The educated elite is simply out of touch. For them, these are issues that often reach them through media and they simply express their disgust and move ahead. No wonder, the issues that don't get highlighted in mainstream English media, is reported in Urdu papers and then Ulema respond to them.

So the problem remains same after decades. Our elected representatives or those amongst us who have prospered fail to even understand, let alone take action, the real issues. Hence, the clergy is filling this void throughout the country.

When Akbar’s tomb at Sikandra was burnt and dug, his mortal remains set afire but Taj Mahal survived the raids by a whisker: Agra Travelogue, part-6

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That Taj Mahal was robbed and precious valuables were taken away is well-known but not many know how the monument got saved by a whisker in the eighteenth century.

Close to Agra, the Sikandra tomb was burnt down. Even today you can see signs of fire on the walls of the tomb of Akbar, though Lord Curzon had got it repaired to some extent. Such was the Jat fury that even the mighty Akbar’s tomb was dug and former emperor’s bones were brought out and set afire. See Link.

Taj Mahal was lucky that it was not harmed as much, though it was robbed* and valuables extracted [and taken away]. The Taj was stuffed with hay [bhusa] See link. Under Raja Ram, the Jats had become a major force.

Manucci wrote how Jat soldiers desecrated the grave, dug out the bones of emperor and set them afire to avenge the death of their past chieftain Gokala Jat. The raids or the 'chhapa-maar hamla' tactics were effective and the weak Mughal forces here failed to stop the onslaught.

It all happened the period after Mughal empire had begun weakening post the death of Aurangzeb in 1707. The Jats and Marathas were now the new powers of the land. 

In later years [after Raja Ram], Suraj Mal emerged as one of the most important figures of the era. The Jats are a martial race. The valuables in Deeg, the capital of Suraj Mal, are still shown proudly. There is no attempt to change history either.

The story of how the Taj Mahal survived miraculously

With the decline of Mughal power, the Jats made repeated attacks on Agra. They often plundered and looted villages here.  Later, the Jat army attacked Agra and even managed to capture the fort.  

This happened after 1761. Agra was now in the hands of Suraj Mal. It was then that they robbed valuables from the Taj Mahal also. The ornaments looted from here were taken to Dig, the Jat capital, where you still see them in Jal Mahal, on proud display. 

Maharaja Suraj Mal

In the book, ‘In the shadow of the Taj: A portrait of Agra’, Royina Grewal writes:

..the Mughal empire slid into steady decline. North India, and with it, Agra, was plunged into a continued insecurity as ambitious marauders, lured by the imperial treasuries held at the Fort, strove to establish control.

 Finally, Suraj Mal, legendary leader of the martial Jats from nearby Bharatpur attacked Agra. Jat soldiers camped at the Taj Mahal, lit fires inside the mausoleum to keep themselves warm and made off with its silver gates and finest gems….

There were two silver gates at the entrance of the Taj Mahal. They were looted and taken away by the Jat renegades. Also, a heavily ornamented precious gate was taken away from Agra Fort. The City was plundered and Taj Mahal was looted. See link

Umpteen writers have mentioned it at length. But K Natwar Singh only briefly mentioned the incident about ‘Rajpurohit’s order in his book on Maharaja Suraj Mal’.

But old books and even Urdu texts mention that it was Suraj Mal’s decision that saved Taj.But that’s just one aspect of the story. 

Those were turbulent times indeed and words like ‘Jaat-gardi’ became part of language and are now part of history books. 

Maharaja Suraj Mal was a man of strong character. Those who called him 'Suraj Mal Jat’ do injustice to it. 

The story which is often forgotten is that after hay was stuffed into Taj Mahal, a high priest asked the king to set it afire or turn the building into something else. But Maharaja Suraj Mal refused. He admired the beauty of the Taj. Yes, ornaments were taken away but Taj Mahal was saved. 

Emperor Shah Jahan

The toughest time for the monument was during the era from early 18^th century [1707 onwards] to mid-19^th century [till decades after 1857].

In his book, author Stephen P Blake writes about the turn of events and the desecration of mausoleum in these words:  “Jats….@&*# (sic) increased their attacks on Agra pillaged Akbar’s tomb near Agra..”

Much later, there was British plan [Bentick’s] to break the marble monument and auction it [all its gems and riches]. However, the tomb has survived. 

The risk to Taj is due to depleting water levels of Yamuna river and environmental factors, particularly, the pollution level in Agra. Fortunately, there are steps being taken in this direction.

Even a dam is likely to be built to keep water in the Yamuna, so as to keep its special foundation [that will remain intact as long as there is water in the river] firm, for centuries to come. This was the sixth part of the travelogue which focused on how Taj got saved by a whisker. 

The initial five parts of this travelogue can be read here:

Part 1 [Travel guide, tip, suggestions for foreign and domestic visitors]
Part 2 [Mysteries & Secrets of Taj Mahal]
Part 3 [Have you seen finial of Taj, do you know its taller than Qutab Minar?]
Part 4 [Inside Taj: Seeing replicas of graves, entry to original graves now blocked]

Part 5 [The rarely seen magnificent view from the other side of Yamuna & Mythical story about plan to build a black Taj Mahal]

The rarely seen magnificent view of Taj Mahal from other side of Jamuna and Mythical story of the Black Taj Mahal: The Taj Mahal Travelogue Part-5

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Frankly, I had never seen this view of Taj Mahal in any photograph. No one had told me about the view from across the Jamuna. While the normal visitor goes to Taj Mahal and returns after seeing the breathtaking [but basic] view, he doesn’t often realize that there is another site from where you can see Taj in its complete glory—on a vast canvas, without any interruption or building in between.

In fact, after getting the ticket, a visitor has to first go through the gate where you are frisked, and then walk straight until you get past the main entrance gate, and only then you see the mausoleum directly. As a result, you don’t have the grand view of the expanse of the entire Taj Mahal’s structure.

On the other hand, from Mahtab Bagh, you can see the marble monument and its adjoining symmetric red stone structures, without any obstruction. It is really a breathtaking view. We may also have returned like numerous others from Agra after a normal visit.

Fortunately, when we visited Taj Mahal, we noticed movement of people on the other side of the river. We were told that some people visit there to take a photograph. Sorry, what? The guide didn’t tell us anymore.

But next day we did enquire a bit.

Ruins in Mahtab Bagh have nothing to do with foundation of 'Black Taj' 

Also, a taxi-wala sensed our extra interest in the monument.

‘Aap Mehtab Bagh nahi chalenge’ [Won’t you visit Mehtab Bagh], he asked in Urdu.

Soon we were on way to the other side of the river. We entered the old city, crossed the bridge, and in no time, reached the vast garden.

Though it was noon, still, the weather wasn’t as harsh. [Do visit early in the morning if its summer]. But once inside, we saw the most spectacular sight. This view we hadn’t seen before and it was indescribable feeling. Our Agra visit was now complete.

We felt that now we had seen the Taj. The only wish was to see it in moonlight. So what is Mehtab Bagh? Babar had come to Agra, soon after his victory in the battle of Panipat in 1526. To him, the weather in Agra was extremely hot and harsh. He recalled the greenery, the cascades and fountains.

On lines of the gardens in Samarkand, he got similar gardens [baagh] laid out on the Eastern side of Jamuna. Many such gardens came into existence here near the Agra Fort and one of them was the Bagh-i-Hasht Bihisht.

The area has a mosque from the era which has Humayun’s inscription and it survives to this day. It was here that Babar's son Humayun built his observatory, which also exists and is now known as 'Gyaarah Seedhi' or Eleven Stairs.

So the ruins of this 'baagh' existed for long. Akbar had later given the large site on both sides of Joon [now Jamuna] to Raja Man Singh. Shah Jehan had later bought the land here from Man Singh's descendant Raja Jai Singh. Four havelis were given to him and in lieu of that the land was obtained.

Almost at the same site where Bagh-i-Hasht Bihisht once existed, the Mehtab Bagh or Chandni Bagh was now built. Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) board here says that the Mahtab Bagh is laid out in perfect symmetry and alignment with the Taj Mahal.

There were barahdaris [open, arcaded pavilions] and 'banglas' [pavilions] interconnected with corridors, made of sandstone, in this vast garden. They later fell. There were 25 fountains here. The large pond here sent water to these fountains through pipes.

The waterworks were amazing but were destroyed over the years. It was built as part of the original plan of the entire mausoleum complex. Perhaps, it was named Mehtab Bagh [Mehtab in Urdu means moon] because it is the ideal place to see Taj in moonlight.

The Chini-khana had candles and flowers to create a magical environment. Over the years the structure crumbled. The flood and the sand that came with the flow of water in Jamuna [Yamuna] covered this site. People forgot this place.

Over the last couple of years, ASI has been trying really hard to restore it. The garden is looked after well. It has 8,000 trees and plants now. There are policemen keeping vigil and the view of Taj from here is simply amazing.

The story about the ‘Black Taj Mahal’

Mumtaz Mahal died in 1631, when Shah Jehan was camping in Burhanpur. She was buried in Zainabad on the banks of river Tapti in today's Burhanpur district in Madhya Pradesh.

After crushing the opponent, Shah Jahan got the body interred and it was later buried in Taj Mahal in Agra. There is a story often heard that Shah Jehan planned to build an exactly similar black Taj Mahal. There is no basis to this story.

That canards and conspiracy theories are enjoyed and believed by a large setion [because they want to believe something astounding] is well known. It's an interesting thought. In fact, imaginary photographs or models of black Taj on the other side of Yamuna river, as created by artists or through photo editing softwares, looks scary.

When the forgotten Mahtab Bagh [there will be a separate post in the next part on it], was redisovered and people began visiting it, the remnants of the structure gave people a hint that perhaps it was the foundation of the black mausoleum. The excavation at the site of Mahtab Bagh also showed no such plan or foundation.

Anyway, Shah Jahan had almost emptied his treasury in building the Taj Mahal. There was no further plan. He spent last years of his life, imprisoned in the Red Fort, after Aurangzeb acquired the throne. The story of the second Taj is a mere fantasy.

Isn't it now among the longest running travel series account that centres on Taj Mahal, at least, among online travelogues!

The earlier parts of this travelogue can be read here:

Part 1 [Travel guide, tip, suggestions for foreign and domestic visitors]
Part 2 [Mysteries & Secrets of Taj Mahal]
Part 3 [Have you seen finial of Taj, do you know its taller than Qutab Minar?]
Part 4 [Inside Taj: Seeing replicas of graves, entry to original graves now blocked]

Inside Taj Mahal: Seeing replica of Shah Jahan-Mumtaz Mahal's graves as entry to original 'mazaars' blocked: My journey to Agra, travelogue Part-4

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Seeing the Taj Mahal in photographs or movies you can never imagine its grandeur until you see it in front of you. The mausoleum totally overwhelms the visitor with its imposing structure and majestic beauty.

After the first glimpse of Taj Mahal and the tips for travellers, the optical illusions, mysteries and secrets of the mausoleum and the unique facts about the tomb's pinnacle, this is the fourth part of the travelogue in which I'd focus on the the final resting place of Shahjehan and Mumtaz Mahal--their graves inside the Taj.

At the gate, there was a board on which it was written that photography is not allowed once we step inside the tomb. Till now, I had clicked enough photographs on the premises, platform and around this masterpiece of world heritage, marvelling its beauty and architecture.

In the central octagonal room, one could see the graves through the marble screen [jaali]. However, these are not real graves but decorative ones. Surprised. How can that be? As per Islamic tradition, the 'qabr' or grave has to be below the ground--buried in the earth below. [Arrey bhai, qabr zameen ke niche hi hoti hai.]

Naturally, the graves couldn't be up there at such a height. This is the reason that the original graves are at the lower chamber, the entry to which was stopped some years ago. The imitative graves are similar to the real sarcophagi located in the basement.

The dimensions are same but not the craftsmanship. Though there is lot of security but when you see people still writing their names and making graffiti on the milky marble--damaging the structure, without any concern for our national heritage, you feel that restrictions are necessary.

At the Humanyun's Tomb [Humayun was Shahjehan's ancestor, great grandfather to be precise] in Delhi, which was built long before Taj Mahal, there is similar arrangement at the sarcophagus--decorative grave at ground floor, real grave in lower storey [underground chamber].

Due to these cenotaphs in the middle of the upper chamber, those walking around won't have their feet over the real graves. So there is no disrespect to the graves that are directly below this chamber. In the upper chamber, where visitors are allowed, you see light filtering out through screens and glasses.

The final resting place of Shah Jahan and Mumtaz Mahal

Shah Jehan was later buried here and hence his grave is situated a bit towards the left.

As usual, the graves of male and female can be distinguished when you see the top of the 'qabr'. Shah Jehan's has a 'qalamdan' [pencase or quill box] on  it.

In Archaeological Survey of India's (ASI) book on Taj Mahal, the royal sarcophagi is mentioned in these words:

"...The arches of this central octagonal hall amidst which lies the exquisite eight side marble network, are made of the finest marble. In fact, so chaste that when the rays of light scooping through the double perforated marble screens fall on it, a sort of miracle occurs, because it seems that this marble has been thinly coated with sang-i-tila or gold stone, the precious particles of which have been set in its smooth texture", writes Dr WH Siddiqui, the former Director of ASI.

"The front of arches apart from masterly calligraphy comprising quotations from Holy Quran are embellished with the most gorgeous ornamentation in the form of plants, bouquets, buds opening and closing, blossoms partly blown or in full bloom, and leaves bent by the breeze. They are so natural and true to life that unless observed closely it is difficult to discern that they are composed of pieces of precious stones so firmly and elegantly embedded in the marble".

"It is amazing but true that an ornamented marble panel depicting a bouquet of flowers contains several hundred pieces to form the mosaic work, and in a single flower there may be as many as fifty pieces of valuable stones of bright and natural colours, what is more, these pieces are closely and accurately embedded that it is impossible to pass a needle in the parting", the book further says.

The real graves in the lower chamber of the tomb

There is a lot to see once you are inside the tomb but you should have the eye to note the intricate details.

Always remember that when you get inside such structures, have a look at the ceiling, you must have the eye for details, the inquisitiveness of a traveller and must ask the guide about the artwork.

Surprisingly, here also the visitors were throwing coins--at the mazaars!

The then Emperor of Hindustan who commanded unprecedented wealth must not have ever imagined that a few centuries later people would throw metal coins at his 'qabr'.


In fact, there is Urs also in memory of Shah Jehan, just like Sufi saints' are remembered and the Urs is held to mark their anniversaries. Once a while, a person tries to take a snap of the graves inside the Taj, but the security personnel inside are alert and immediately stop them from photography.

More about Mausoleum

There are interesting aspects about the reflection of light and the sound affects inside the tomb. You may spot   the signature of the master calligrapher, in case, the guide tells you and if you can read a bit of Perso-Arabic [Urdu script]. You may as well find the word 'Bhola' written in devanagari somewhere there.

There is the story about the lamp, a gift from the British lieutenant governor who visited the tomb in 1909 and many other tales. We have skipped a lot including the death of Mumtaz, how she had died and buried first in Burhanpur and later the body was brought and buried here.

Exquisite art, workmanship at Taj amazes even after 400 years

We haven't even talked about the Char Bagh garden, the mosque, the Basai tower, the turrets, the waterworks--all that formed part of this mausoleum complex which was made on lines of a paradise for Mumtaz Mahal on earth, before her final destination--the heavenly paradise.

I have earlier mentioned a few of the illusions in the structure but I forgot to write about the optical trick about Taj's size when you see it from the main gateway--its getting bigger suddenly in a matter of few steps.

But the travelogue continues. Next on when Taj was just saved by a whisker.

Shah Jehan [formerly Prince Khurram] birth 1592, death 1666
Mumtaz Mahal [formerly Arjuman Ara Begum] birth 1593, death 1631 

[Taj Maha's construction began in 1631, completed in 1653]

Earlier parts of this travelogue on my recent visit to Agra
1. First glimpse of Taj Mahal: Suggestions, Top Ten Tips and Advisory if you are planning to visit Agra
2. Mysteries, Secrets and Little-known facts about Taj Mahal
3. Have you seen the finial on the Taj's dome, know its height? Taj Mahal taller than Qutub Minar.

Have you seen the pinnacle on the top of Taj Mahal's dome, know its height! My trip to Agra, travelogue Part-3

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If you have seen the Taj Mahal, have your ever paid attention to the pinnacle [finial] on top of this magnificent monument's dome?

The finial is more than 30 feet high [surprised!] though the height at which it stands, makes it appear smaller to us.

In fact, if you walk on the platform of Taj Mahal, you will see the exact shape of the drawing of this finial made on the floor just on the right side of Taj [towards jamat-khana].

It is because of this brass finial [weighing nearly 4/5th of a tonne] that the height of Taj Mahal is slightly more than the Qutub Minar, as I mentioned in the second part of this travelogue.

However, because Taj is a wide structure, one doesn't immediately get a feeling that it is so high. The exact height of Taj Mahal's pinnacle [up to finial tip] is a little over 73 m above the garden or ground.

This is up to the pinnacle on the top of the dome that is higher than its four corner minarets. The height of Qutab Minar is 72.5 metres.If you look closely you will find 'iron rings' on the entire dome. You will have to make an effort to locate them.

But do you know how big are they? Large enough for a labourer to sit. Each of them is around 1 feet though due to the imposing structure when you look from the ground, you feel that they are much smaller.

Design of the finial on top of the dome, is drawn on the floor of Taj Mahal.

In fact, when the ASI gets the dome cleaned, it is these iron rings which are used by workers engaged in the restoration job, to go upwards and do the cleaning.

You must have heard the Taj looks different at different hours of the day.

It is said that it reflects pinkish huge in the morning, milky white in the evening and golden in moon light.

Indeed, Taj changes colours with the day--the effect of sunlight and the river.

Inside the Taj Mahal, one can see the real effect of the mosaic of semi-precious stones.

The mosaics are created with tiny coloured stones set into marble.

The artisans shaped them with great precision and skill.

The flowers are carved into marble, creating the space for setting a precious stone. After delicate correction, the stones are set in with the use of glue. These precious inlays sparkle.

Earlier guides would throw light on the gems and these semi-precious stones would emit light, for example: red shining like bright ruby.

One of the minarets of the Taj Mahal

Twenty eight different type of precious and semi-precious stones were inlaid into sang-e-marmar [white marble] to build this magnificent octagonal tomb.

Its not just the delicate carvings that surprise visitors to the mausoleum, but there are other aspects too.

Optical Illusions, sense of proportion

There is enough of Optical Illusion in Taj Mahal's construction. Stand anywhere and look at the Arabic calligraphy--the verses from the Holy Quran inscribed on the walls.

The size of the Arabic alphabets look the same all along the vertical height.

Imagine how the letters written in the line visible in front of you look the same size as the one on a height of nearly 25 metres!

This amazing feat was achieved by the extraordinary calligrapher Amanat Ali Khan Shirazi.

Shirazi somehow knew how the size of words had to be increased gradually so that the normal human eye the font is same for the lower line as well as the topmost line.

One can only marvel at his understanding of angles and how human eye functions apart from the finesse in calligraphy.

This master craftsmanship--combination of science and art to achieve the perspective and proportion of balance is one of the major reason that Taj Mahal is unrivalled and unparalleled. It is a monument that stuns even those who have more scientific bent of mind but have little aesthetic interest.

Inspiration for the tomb

Letters in front of your eye are as readable as the ones at the top!

The architects, designers of Taj Mahal, achieved absolute perfection in almost everything they accomplished.

More optical illusions continue as you see the building and the four minarets. The inspiration for the Taj Mahal came from four different 'maqbaras'.

First, Hoshang Shah's tomb in Mandu [Malwa, MP], Abdur Rahim Khan-i-Khanaan's tomb in Delhi, Humayun's mausoleum and Itimad-ud-Daula's tomb in Agra.

The finest and best of all was combined and the minarets added when Ustad Isa made the layout plan.

The central dome is called Gumbad-i-Amroodi because of its shape. The four minarets are shorter than the middle dome.

The Four minarets of the Taj Mahal

Interestingly, the Taj's minarets have a feature that distinguishes it from other towers or minarets of the era.

In Taj, minaret's third story is the tallest. But the middle-one is shortest. As a result, when you see them, you feel the minarets have three storeys of equal proportions.

Hence, the top most storey doesn't look smaller. The staircases are closed for years now and one can't go to the top of these minarets.

Apart from calligraphy, there are abstract geometric elements and floral motifs that decorate the structure.

If you look at the walls of the building, you will see the patterns that create an illusion.

You feel that that there six or more sides but when you touch the marble, you realise that there are just three faces.

In fact, the patterns are such that without touching the walls you can't figure out the number of facets of a corner.

There is no dearth of fascinating facts, architectural and structural fine points about the Taj Mahal. After all, its not for nothing that Taj is one of the Seven Wonders of the World. [Thanks to Agraonline.co.in for the inset photo of the finial]

Hats off to Ustad Ahmad Lahauri and Mir Abdul Karim, the two main architects behind the building of this magnificent structure. This was third in the series of posts after the First part that was about first view and tips for a visitor, second part that focused on the Secrets and mysteries of the monument.

This long series on Agra travelogue continues. If you have enjoyed the travelogue so far, wait for the next post.