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Monday, November 24, 2008

Delhi Assembly elections: Will BJP pip Congress?



Less than a week remains before Delhi goes to vote. Veteran BJP leader Vijay Kumar Malhotra is leading the BJP campaign against Sheila Dixit who has been Chief Minister twice.

But the question is whether the anti-incumbency factor will work in favour of BJP or Dixit's image is strong enough to brave this sentiment? Malhotra is expected to get overwhelming support of the पंजाबी community.

But Dixit has managed to strike a chord with the citizens. She scores over other leader as far as image is concerned. Though there are all sorts of speculations, predicting an outcome is risky. Opinion polls have failed in the past because of the unique Indian voter who often doesn't confide his choice to anybody and can even lie if somebody asks him to which party he voted for.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is contesting on all the 70 seats and the influence of the party on the voters with roots in UP can't be ignored. The BJP will gain, if the Dalit-Backward vote splits and goes to BSP while section of minorities vote for SP or the other third alternative. In constituencies with large Muslim populace, there was anger against UPA government until recently.

In constituencies that have large Muslim concentration like Babarpur, Matia Mahal and Balli Maran, the community has a strength from 40-50%. In Seelampur it is more than 60%. Though Okhlay that witnessed the Batla House encounter, may vote for the Samajwadi Party candidate, the situation may not be the same elsewhere.

In constituencies like Chandni Chowk, Simapuri, Vikaspuri, Babapur, Mustafabad and Sangampuri the Muslims form a chunk of electorate (20-30%). But the anger appears subsiding now. Except one or two constituencies, the Muslims appear all set to vote for better candidate on the basis of his work rather than getting misled over emotive issues.

If one goes by conventional political wisdom it has to be Sheila Dixit who faces a daunting task after two consecutive terms. But if the party manages to return to power, it will be to her credit and she will make history in the National Capital.

States like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh are also voting almost the same time. On November 29, people of Delhi will vote. Next month we will see whether lotus blooms in Delhi or the Congress hand tighets its fist on the metro. dekhiye oont kis karvat baithtaa hai....

18 comments:

original anonymous said...

opinion polls dont fail because voters dont confide or lie....its because those who asked are generally the ones who generally dont like wasting a holiday to stand in long queues to vote....those who vote, opinion polls rarely reaches them....

Anser Azim said...

Indian democracy is of its own kind. I would like to know what were the issues of the election for different rivals. From your post it is obvious that voting is based upon religion, cast, creed, muscle power and simply not the qualification of the candidate and most importantly the issues of the constituents. I hope they discuss illiteracy, education, jobs, pollution, drinking water, pollution, plight of sacred rivers,
eco system, human rights, female foeticide, HIV, health issues, right of eduaction, women education specially in minorities.
Lots of things popping into my mind
but got to go
anser

Anonymous said...

andhi he tufan he gokulpuri ki jaan he bhai Ranjit singh kashyap(BJP)gokulpuri vidhan sabha ko hardik subhkamanaye.

Anonymous said...

teh dil se mubarkbad bhai Ranjit singh kashyap ji gokulpuri vidhan sabha delhi(BJP)

Pinku said...

you are right about the nail biting stuff. and though technically I cant vote for Delhi candidates being a NCR citizen...whoever comes to power will gravely affect my life.

and for all its faults i really do hope its the congress....cause UP which is under Mayawati does not inspire me and the BJP truly frightens.

Have you seen their Ads splayed all over the place?

titled Mehengi pari congress ....all they seem to be able to do is point fingers...but provide no alternate solutions to the problems faced by the semi-state.

Anonymous said...

BJP will whip the Congress. I cant wait for Dec 8 when CONgress will be ruing its strategy of blaming Hindus for terrorism.

Anser Azim said...

I am not sure where anonymous read that Congress has blamed Hindus for terrorism. Some members of the right wing Hindu organizations have been implicated for some of the blasts in India. People have been killed in Orissa recently. Dara Singh I believe was jailed for killing mercilessly the priest from Australia. Let the law of the land deal to some of these killers and their organizations.
People who kill innocent people are terrorist but in my opinion they have no religion and I can say with certainty that they cannot be Hindus. I do not include Mr Modi, Togadias, Balthakreys, Rajnath, Uma Bharti etc in the True Hindu list. They have blood on their hands and belong to prison but not as our leaders. I Remember 1984 riots, Gujrat killings and want to know how many have been sent to jail as of today.
justice is the backbone of democracy.

Kagaz ki kashti said...

I hope the muslim voters decide for good & don't get carried away by directions from Jama masjid Imam, whom to be voted, & why...?
Their votes are crucial & all should vote...

indscribe said...

Original anonymous @ You are right to an extent but people do lie. In UP voters in urban areas kept on saying that they voted for BJP or Congress though they were voting for BSP, especially in case of educated Dalits. Similarly in other states it is quite common practice.

Anser Azim Sb @ The irony is that people even after they get educated tend to believe that parties who befool them using religion, are indeed their saviour.

Pinku @ Ya, yahi to mushkil hai. BJP just doesn't grow up and provie a real pan-Indian progressive alternative.

Anon @ BJP may win in Delhi. But the tragedy is that you want a party that speaks for Hindu. Does this party really speak for the ordinary poor Hindu? Think over it? We need parties speaking for every citizen, of our rights and dealing firmly with every law-breaker irrespective of their caste and religion.

Original anonymous said...

dude.....whr did u get this info..knowing the state pretty well....proportion of dalits supporting BJP in exit polls wud b very rare...yeah if u select such a rare sample set...results r bound to be misleading.

How do we know said...

this is one of the most analytical, the most neutral posts that i have read on ur blog.

This is the kind of politics one likes to read about! :-) and so right.. dekhein oont kis karvat baithta hai.

Pinku said...

A request to Mr Anonymous..if you are so sure of yourself why hide behind anonymity?

Have the guts to put your name to atleast your words if not actions.

Anonymous said...

The moot question is :"Kown BJP ko maraa?"(Who beat BJP?)The answer is not far to seek.BJP leaders only killed BJP!"Completely cutoff from ground realities,flying in the ninth cloud and revelling in the thought :"it is ours to decide and theirs to do or die!""Mhangi padi Congress!",they jeered! The Delhi voters replied,"Hai!gir padi bhajpa!"

~PakKaramu~ said...

Pak Karamu reading your blogs

Anonymous said...

The apartment owners who got their all news homes in Navi Mumbai
Those who were shifted by CIDCO in the Juinagar apartments are victims of the bitter realities of an insensitive and apathetic system. For apartment owners of JN Type apartments in Shraddha compound, shifting to Juinagar was suppose to be a make shift arrangement before their real homes were reconstructed. FSI to CIDCO built apartments reeling under dilapidated conditions is perhaps the most burning issue that haunts Navi Mumbai today. May be that’s why the victims of CIDCO’s sub standard constructed apartments are loosing faith but the first ray of hope that they’d get relief from the deplorable living conditions came when Guardian Minister Ganesh Naik had pursued the issue of FSI to CIDCO apartments during the Chief Minister’s visit to Navi Mumbai in June 2009.
Even the apartment owners who got their all news homes had shared with us how their apartments were in dilapidated conditions and after reconstruction they have homes with all new amenities. They gave the credit for this to Guardian Minister Ganesh Naik.

Anonymous said...

Sandeep Naik: "This victory is a vote for progress, secularism and peace."
Thursday's twin victories, combined with the fact that elder son Sanjeev (37) -- a former Navi Mumbai mayor -won a Thane Parliamentary seat in the national election held earlier this year, will boost Naik's status further within the NCP and cement the region's status as a family bastion.
The father-son duo successfully battled anti-incumbency, the emergence of the MNS and rebels candidates from the NCP and alliance partner Congress -- local Congress president Namdeo Bhagat (46) jumped into the fray as an Independent after he lost his ticket in seatsharing negotiations. The Naiks' main poll plank was development, with father and son repeatedly citing the Morbe Dam as a major achievement and promising more along the same lines.

Anonymous said...

The tradition of secularism & communal harmony is the hallmark of the Ganesh Naik family
Ganesh Naik said that the voters of Navi Mumbai have proven that he is after all the people’s candidate. On the other hand all did not seem well in the Airoli constituency when the voting began.
Only when counting of votes began from Koperkhairane and reached to sectors of Vashi and Turbhe, did Sandeep Naik overtake the saffron candidate and at the end of the 23 rounds of counting emerged as the winner with a lead of 11957 votes. The total votes that Sandeep Naik garnered were 79075 as against the 67118 garnered by Vijay Chougule. Post his victory, Sandeep Naik thanked voters who showed confidence in the party leadership of NCP.
The tradition of secularism & communal harmony is the hallmark of the Naik family & it is being followed generation to generation. After the Lok Sabha elections, the state assembly elections had become the biggest challenge for the first family of Navi Mumbai. And neither the change mantra, nor dynastic rule or Congress rebels could change the results that have proven that the support to the Naik family is as heady and strong even now as it has been for 4 decades. Indeed Navi Mumbai's love affair with the Naik family continues.

Anonymous said...

Guru Nanak Jayanthi is the birth anniversary of the founder of the Sikh faith
On the auspicious day of the Sikhs, a bridge was also inaugurated by Ganesh Naik making another walkway for the devotees of the gurudwara. Speaking to the media, Ganesh Naik said that he was not with the Sikh community but was amongst one of them. He prayed for strength to bring happiness in people’s lives.
Guru Nanak Dev was a great seer, saint and mystic. A prolific poet and a unique singer of God's laudation, for the Sikhs he was the messenger of peace, love, truth and renaissance who spent most of his life in meditation and spiritual practices. Guru Nanak Dev believed in and preached the concept of one god, one without any physical form. That is why the Sikhs don't worship idols.