Sunday, March 06, 2016

Opinion poll suggests Mamata Banerjee's TMC to win in West Bengal again, LDF comeback in Kerala, Jayalalitha victory in Tamil Nadu but setback for Congress

Election Commission of India (ECI) has announced schedule for the forthcoming assembly elections in four states.

With dates announced, already opinion polls are being commissioned to gauge the public mood in these states.

So who will win the election? That's a matter of speculation, however, C Voter is the first to come with a survey. It suggests that Congress may face setback, as it is likely to lose two states viz. Assam and Kerala, where it is in power.

The four states that are going to polls include West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala. BJP is not very strong in these states.

However, it has a significant vote in Assam, and its alliance with the BJP may bring it to power in the State. It is not a power to reckon with in West Bengal even now, but party leaders are hopeful of a good show.

In WB, the main fight is between Trinamool Congress and CPI (M) in West Bengal. In Assam, the contest is between Congress and BJP-AGP alliance though Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF may corner enough seats to emerge as kingmaker after the election.

In Tamil Nadu, it is the traditional AIADMK against DMK fight. In Kerala, the Communist front--Left Democratic Front (LDF) is likely to make a comeback.


WEST BENGAL: Mamata seems set to form government, Communists may improve their tally but Congress to lose more seats compared to last election, unless there is a tie-up between Congress and Left.

TMC 156 
CPI-M 114
Congress 13
Others 7

KERALA: The Communists could return to power again. Congress-led UDF may lose. BJP is not going to do very well and the state remains polarised between Congress and Left coalitions.

LDF 89 
UDF 49
Others 1

ASSAM: In Assam, BJP-AGP alliance is doing better as per the opinion poll. Tarun Gogoi-led Congress may get less number of seats. However, Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF can have a tie-up with Congress, post-polls. Congress looks down but is not out of the race.

BJP alliance 57 
Congress 44
Others 6

TAMIL NADU: Tamil Nadu has always been a tough state for pollsters and predictions have gone horribly wrong here in the past. However, it seems despite anti-incumbency, J Jayalalitha's AIADMK is performing better than DMK. But a slight vote swing can change the results dramatically.

DMK 101
Others 17