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Monday, March 23, 2009

Opinion poll gives Congress edge, BJP slipping in Election 2009!

Just now another Opinion Poll has given the Congress an edge and predicted a victory for UPA in the Lok Sabha elections 2009.

The Star News-AC Nielson poll predicts 257 seats for the UPA and 184 for the NDA with Third Front getting nearly 96 seats and six to the others in the 545 [543=2 nominated MPs] member house.

Can it be true?

Strangely, there seems no difference in the results of General election 2004 and 2009 if we believe this poll that gives Congress 144 seats and BJP 137. The number of seats in the last election was Congress 145 and 138 for BJP.

So the poll suggests that there will be no change, just one seat less for both the major parties! So none of them performing good or bad compared to each other. I find it unusual. There are surprises like DMK again getting a high number of seats. Left is not with Congress.

Besides, there could be anti-incumbency at work and the poll itself doesn't show any sudden rise in number of seats for Congress. So it is just a question of right or wrong allies? Else, how can UPA be declared on its way towards victory and BJP getting defeated!

In the past also, it was Tamil Nadu that had embarrassed the Indian psephologists when they were completely flummoxed by the voter. Conventional wisdom says that Jayalalitha should gain but the opinion poll gives 24 seats to Karunanidhi's DMK and just 9 to AIADMK, while six go to the rest.

And where is the UPA? With RJD and LJP contesting the election together and not leaving any seat for Congress and SP having no truck with Congress, will the situation be same. Had the poll taken care of the recent changes?

It seems the seats of not just Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti and Lalu Yadav's RJD, but also Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party have been included to take the UPA tally up to 257, on the basis of the assumption that these three parties will not join NDA at any cost.

The AC-Nielson Star News poll results for 2009 elections:

United Progressive Alliance [UPA] 257
National Democratic Allianec [NDA] 184
Third Front 96
Rest 6

Now see the position of the parties:

Congress 144
BJP 137
Left Front 34
Others: SP 30, BSP 21, DMK 24, JDU 16, NCP 13, TMC 13, TDP 14, Shiv Sena 12, RJD 11, AIADMK 9, LJP 6, JD (S) 4, AGP 6, RLD 6, TRS 3, NC 2, PDP 1, MUL 3, INLD 1, JMM 1 etc.

In West Bengal, the Communists are heading for a bad show and Mamata Bannerjee's TMC along with Congress will together bag 20 seats while in Bihar, RJD will be reduced to 11 despite the coalition, says the poll. LJP may get 6 while Nitish Kumar gets 15.

In Maharashtra it's evenly split. Congress 12, NCP 13, Shiv Sena 12 and BJP 10. The bulk of seats for BJP will come from MP (25), Rajasthan (14), Karnataka (16) and Gujarat (16).

It's not easy to fathom the mind of Indian voter and howsoever large the sample size may be, it's difficult to make any predictions in a country as huge as India where often it is three or four-cornered fight.

Why poll appears in Congress' favour?

What seems going in Congress favour is that, unlike Atal Bihari Vajpayee who had a 24party coalition, the current BJP has barely 6 partners. TDP, a major party has vowed not to go with BJP.

However, Congress doesn't have Left parties with it, though SP compensates it to an extent. The Congress will have to deal with growing aspirations of allies as regional satraps would want their pound of flesh agressively.

It is in such situations that BSP will play a crucial role. Left may not be as big a player as it was but it will certainly play a role in post-election scenario. A change in Tamil Nadu or an upset in any other state, can change the situation drastically.

In fact, the polls don't give much importance to the third parties or the prospects of a hugn parliament. That's the reason the predictions appear more in favour the Congress.

The Previous Poll

Earlier, the CNN-IBN and CSDS pre-election survey had also given similar results but it didn't give exact figure. It had given UP 215-235 seats, NDA 165-185 and the Third Front 90-100.

The third front seems set to get 100 seats again and that's no small number. Let's wait just a few days to see how close AC Nielson-Star TV poll is to the real composition of Indian parliament.

17 comments:

Kalpesh said...

What is the method of the poll? Who gave money for this? This will prove false.

Anonymous said...

90% media in India is pro-congress. So such opinion poll are geared more as a election campaign for congress to make people believe congress is winning hence vote in their favor.I wonder how BJP think it can survive when most of the media is always after it trying to make as much damage to it as possible. I wonder why they don't invest in media to counter congress as far as as media warfare is concerned.

Kundan said...

The biggest fallacy of this opinion poll is Bihar, I am from Bihar and I know fir sure that UPA is not going to get more than 7-8 seats there. And the poll has given 21 seats for UPA! And from where will SP get 30 seats in UP, even Mulayam doesnt know!!but Stat seems to know wonderful.

And in TN, everyone knows UPA is on a losing side but the poll gives it 28 seats!!wonderful. In AP, where agains Cingress has slipped badly the poll gives it 26 seats!!

Out of the above states Star predicts 110 seats for UPA when in reality they wont get more than 70 seats. The fight is much closer than what anyone expects it to be. And as we approach the days of polling this race is going to get closer and closer.

Anonymous said...

You enabled anonymous comments on your blog. I respect you for that given that people will might use this channel to vent their frustrations.
I a happy to see one Indian Muslim who said that "Ghajni is not good". I get hurt very much when I see Muslim friends strongly defending that terrorists are doing good deeds and even 9/11 is not bad.

I hope people fight to get good education, progress and development. Crores of people in India dont even have food. They are not issues to politicians but one inch of land between Hindus and Muslims is an issue of national importance and Burkha dutt will host 24 hours debates.

Milind Kher said...

BJP has been constantly drumming up a propoganda that the Congress does not care about Muslims, that it only wants to use them.

My fear is that many of us are beginning to believe that, and this could well divide the Muslim vote, thereby bringing the BJP to power.

We need to truly beware agasinst such a development.

Anonymous said...

May be off the topic. These things run in my mind always.

I always wondered why countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Palestine etc have failed miserably. People from these countries may argue that they are not failed. As outsiders, we know how those countries are developing. India may not be the most developed country but it is developing and people are taking it forward. Every year, new colleges are being built. New inventions. New companies. Lakhs and lakhs of jobs are being created. Standard of middle class has raised. People(Rich and poor alike) are struggling to educate their kids. Education has become the single most important aspect of lives.

Israel is formed much much later than Palestine but it is miles and miles ahead in terms of education and economic development. I dont hear about single university in those countries. Education never seemed to be the topic of discussion. The universities that are there, they teach about religion.(This may not be correct but this is what I heard, Indians who migrate to GULF want to educate their kids in India due to lack of any good colleges in GULF).

Is it ignorance or laziness? Is it lack of good leadership? When the rest of the world is moving ahead, why degress? "Men are lazy to change. Women are afraid to change. Both are uneducated to change." May be this is reason why thouse countries are travelling backwards at the speed of light years.

What does it take to make them believe that there are other important things in life? Who will take action? Why are the leaders busy instigating some or the other controvery such as "In so and so corner of the world, someone has said something against god, let us show our opposition". What will they achieve? Why cant say that "People in our neighboring countires are reaching great heights. Let us also go in that direction". Why are such messages missing? Atleast I never hear. Off the topic it is. One day if you can blog about it, I would like to read.

deepika said...

I and my family have always been congress supporters but slowly are realising that in the national interest we hv to look for other options.Because even after 50 yrs of congress rule if a movie on slums can get oscars it is only due to congress.
And about the leader,i just dont have even slightest of doubt that Mr.manmohan Singh has failed and failed miserably.And its not exactly Manmohan who has failed but the madam behind him.If Manmohan was doing wt madam was telling him to,then it means that madam has failed in ruling,so she's a looser and thus will loose this election too.I hope in the tension of loosing she doesnt commit the all famous "Margaik" mistake which congress always commits.
We can clearly see the party slowly going towards the confusing state of "Margaik".You can see the fear clearly,everybody knows margaik will happen.

A B Quadri said...

Delimitation will throw up many surprises especially with the muslim majority areas being clubbed into one constituency. This has significantly increased the muslim percentage in one constituency while at the same time it has reduced the swinging votes of the muslims, which used to benefit secular parties like the congress in the other constituencies. While secular parties are fighting and under cutting each other with the BSP acting as a spoiler, it is the BJP which will have an edge in almost every constituency, since the percentage of votes which the BJP polls from its Hindu vote bank is more or less fixed.

Yuyutsu said...

@ Quadri saheb:

Hindu 'vote bank'? Really? Thankfully, situation hasn't come to that point yet when Hindus start looking at themselves as 'vote banks'.

Milind Kher said...

Why do we have such demeaning words such as the Hindu "votebank" and the Muslim "votebank"? It is really demeaning. It must be merely referred to as the Hindu vote and the Muslim vote.

We cannot dehumanize entire communities in this manner.

Can Juice said...

I have a feeling that Congress is doing the same mistake what BJP did in 2004. BJP said "India Shining" and were in dream world thinking that they will get 350+ seats since Mr. Vajpayee has been the best Prime Minister of India since India got independence. We know he is not, If there was any progress in India, it is basically the policies of Rajiv Gandhi where he brought conputerisation to Indian psyche and that helped when the floodgates opened. Vajpayee was just PM at the right time. Even under Deve Gowda when govt. was just for 11 months India was growing at 6.2%. So Vajpayee did not do much, its just that it is time for India/China/Russia/ Brazil/Turkey/Nigeria to grow, and US/UK/EU/Japan to come down. Thats the dynamics of world economy.

Similiarly now Manmohan Singh/Congress/Sonia feels that they have done absolutely marvellous job and lets not care for Lalu's Leftists, Mulayams or Mayawati's. Congress is self sufficient. This is total BS and again they are day dreaming. Congress did have upperhand till 2 months back, but now they lost it because of the ego.

Lets be open, BJP has managed to create some base of national level party and an alternative to Congress. But lets give the due respect to Left/Lalu's/Mayawati's /DMK's/AIADMK/Telugu Desam/Mulayam . These guys are as important as these so called national parties are, infact more important. Be it Congress or BJP, these guys are there in everytime the government is formed.

I hope better sense will prevail among Congress think tank and they will respect the regional leaders. And better sense prevail to BJP, that they change there anti-Muslim-christial and pro-hindu stance and think of India and Indians.

Congress has shot itself in foot and given BJP some hope. Infact I do not think any alliance UPA or NDA will even get 175+ seats and BJP or Congress will have difficult time crossing 110 mark individually.

Jagjit Singh Chipra said...

14th. Lok Sabha Elections

Great India Summer tame ass a!!

The other day I made a trip to the local zoo…….I was owe struck by the behaviour of the occupants.
Nearby…..
And, the veteran lizard, in white dhoti and kurta low
Swinging his long worn our tail, on crooked knees
Now tenderly and stealthily moved on padded feet,
Ready with open fangs to tear apart his own party and gnaw it raw!
Next…..
Black cobra meandered from the outer side of the long yellow fence,
Do you recall who ate his own offspring in the last elections?
And, only yesterday quit his party; now unashamed
In calculated moves slowly, stroll under a new flag,
Eyeing to poison the next bench!


Moreover…..
Not far, sat by the green gleaming stagnant pond
The slimy crocodile, eyes shut in artificial meditation
Meditating over the last gloomy performance, and
Calculating which candidate to devour and which to hound. !

Close by……
Lager than life; tail ever wagging and ravenous gleaming eyes
This dark brown dog though still licking his unhealed wounds ----from the last election lost;
Ambled and mixed well into a new found camp!
Knowing well, ‘Ever dog has his day. Either to lick or get kicked?’

Another contender…
Fidgety, wily black crow now perched high on the election pole;
Craned his neck, to and fro; winking constantly at his greedy Pack
While, cautiously holding the high vintage stage, to swoop
down into the near-term poles.
Such fence sitters, in groups large & small, are every ready to pounce on monetary doles!
Lobbying master…
Well fed leach plonked down on soft fertile green moss bed,
Knowing too well that elections were around the bent,
With lecherous glee; and crimson greedy eyes
Ogle the well fed buffalo to latch on for a four year ride!

Credentials?......
Cowered under the crispy fallen dry leaves, while
Changing colours at every move .The chameleon’s
Glisten red blazing eyes, Open wide
In hope to be accepted in the party that moves close by!

Premeditated…..
Old dreary hippopotamus, with visions blurred
Moved sluggishly out of the murky pool,
Wandering, wadding and planning which community to fool!
From experience he knows most are easy election tools!




Under the table….
After intense underground lobbing, the Prickly porcupine
Wearing long black gown, in lofty- crafty pitch announced
‘How by pricking his inflated adversary’s ego,’ he managed to
‘Squeeze a few tickets for a flimsy pre election bond!’


Fodder bank….
The turn coat jackal, not to be out done, unannounced jumped
Over the fence, though in borrowed red shinning toupee
Still charged with raping a village maid,
Proudly chipped in, ‘I have once more quit my party,’
Gingerly holding the new found cap!


4 crore votes…..
Young uneducated but shrewd, firebrand zebra
Craned his neck high; and asked it’s hardy heard
To sit tight and very quietly whispered,
‘Lets see who will this time provide a fodder rich!’

Young swing….
Monkey madam well fed and cheeks red; holding
The centre stage thus spoke, ‘beware this time,
The great sway the young voters can cause.’ Winked foolishly
Unaware of the microphone switched a aloud, and
Asked party workers to, ‘butter youth with pep talks tall!’

Cynicisms…
The wise old owl, neck still tucked in, slowly opened
An eye, shook its head sadly and reflected
Of the new election winning vocabulary, ‘gender,
Discrimination, religious sentiments, crime graphs, and notes for votes!’

No easy fight…
Grey large donkey, a great contender brayed aloud
Called his staunch supporters; and quickly took a head count
Brayed once more, stumped its toes, kicked up dust, noting
Four loyalist, last night have trooped out unannounced!



Tickets by force…
Dark horse, uncouth, but with many crime records
And, many murders and rapes and ever changing homes;
Snorted in, like a demigod, though a member of the parliament
Yet, out of police fear, never saw its high dome!

IF…….
You and I….don‘t VOTE
I pinched myself awake…..and watched the daily drama unfold…and wondered which human-animal will rule this nation great?

jagjit.chipra@gmail.com

Anonymous said...

I am sure that you will not publish my comments. Inspite of all that i am writing this with great regret. Most of the secular parties today are acting as if they love muslims. I cant understan why are they showing so much affection to Isreali Muslinms, whereas they are not considered of Pakistani Muslims. They are opposing this not because of love towrds muslims but they are using us as vote Banks.
Varun Gandhi mentioned about Muslim terrorists and not civilians. The other secular Parties took this as opportunity. by doing this they have made all the Muslims as terriorists. So comeon my Muslim Brothers now its time to awake and vote for change

MANGO MAN (err.. Aam Aadmi) said...

One more election and many more opinion polls... all this is good business, good for the economy especially in times of global economic downturn. We cannot expect stimulus packages from the government ('G' is not capital) with a certainity from experience of more than 60 years but every election does bring a windfall for millions of Indians (Aam Aadmi). Opinion polls are nothing more then a forecast by a roadside "Panditji with a Parrot" for a depressed, lost and desperate man (read Aam Aadmi) who likes to believe in all fantasies doled out unbiasedly by the Parrot and interpreted by the "Panditji" (read Poll Pandits) and as much accurate, giving a few moments of happiness until the next morning it dawns that nothing has actually changed... the Aam Aadmi is still Aam and has now lost that 5 Rupee coin to the "Panditji". These opinion Polls are an insult to the participant of the democracy and are constitutionally illegal. But who cares... SO PLEASE VOTE.. and VOTE for your local MP who is the best suited for your locality and for whom you have an iota of confidence that he shall work for better road in your area, for better toilets, for adequate drinking water, for good education, for safety and security of your loved ones... you cannot change the country but you sure can change your locality. It may be anyone who may representing any party but the public in general should make it clear to the candidate that if your aspirations for betterment are not heeded then make certain that in the next 5 years he/she is challenged to the core at every step. Use RTI for transparency in use of MP funds, keep tab on his/her attendance in parliament, form a core group in the area and list all the issues on a Public Display board prominently for view of all citizens, end of every year on a given date take report cards from every voter in the area in terms of GREEN BOOK (pass) or BLACK BOOK (fail). Very small actions will bring big change... JAI HIND

Amit Chopra said...

People who comment with out thinking shall only call the opnion polls in this country Pro Congress...
Media managment is 10 times better by the BJP then the Congress

Any way it is no untruth that the two major parties shall either form the Govt or shall be instrumental in forming it, no govt shall be possible without the Congress or the BJP

as to this elections most of the voters are already polorised and very few swing voters are there though even a small shift in the later stages might lead to a big change in the formation of the Govt that is y almost all the Polls show almost a mirror image of each other though state wise they might vary a bit here or there

It is intresting to see the Bihar, UP, Tamil Nadu have wide disparites between the Polls...

Just one Point who ever has won Delhi in the Lok Sabha has always formed the Govt at the Center and this time Delhi seems headed the Congress way..

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't agree with 257 for UPA ... It will be much less ... there is not much of enthusiasm for Cong, forget about a wave. Going by various predications (and the very recent opnion poll of Star News), BJP's stars are on the rise and in most probability it shud be the biggest single party.

Shreyansh said...

Dear Mr Anonymous

I don't know why are you talking about Muslims of Pakistan of Israel.
I feel its better to think yourself as an Indian first or a Indian Muslim. First talk about India, until you don't talk about India you will feel you are sating in a foreign land. Afterall its yours country also ypu have to be a part of it, not a part of Pakistan or Israel.
I do not see any difference between a Muslim or any other religion. In fact the name of Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam makes me proud of being an Indian.
i do not like BJP or any other party like BSP which claim to be good for a community, and unfortunately none of them are....You have to be a good person first to do good tings. A bad person can never bring change to society.....
Please vote for a GOOD CANDIDATE not for a party (look at bihar, what lalu has done in 15 yrs)....If 400 good MPs are there in parliament then they will do good irrespective of any political party or religion they belong....