Showing posts with label Lok Sabha Election Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lok Sabha Election Analysis. Show all posts

Saturday, May 17, 2014

An Indian Muslim's letter to Congress leadership: "I am not a BJP supporter but I am glad to see Congress' defeat in Lok Sabha election"

(C) INDSCRIBE

I am not a BJP supporter and there is hardly any chance that I would ever be in future but the rout of Congress in Lok Sabha election 2014, has given me satisfaction.

I find strange that some of my Muslim friends were gloomy at the Congress' loss. I have always found this mental slavery as nauseating. I would have understood had they been disappointed with the performance of non-Congress, non-BJP parties.

Or if you are die-hard anti-BJP man, the stellar performance of the party [and NDA] may have been disappointing for you. But sadness at Congress' defeat is just not understandable to me.

The reasons are here:

GETTING AWAY WITH RIOTS, MASSACRES

1. Congress is the party that can get away with 'massacres' and 'genocides' without even a whimper. Imagine, how more than 50 Muslims were killed in Assam recently, and it was no issue for the 'secular' party. Within three days, it was all forgotten, buried.

There was no demand to sack Tarun Gogoi, who now offers his resignation for poor performance in election! Just over a year ago, there was similar massacre in Bodoland in Assam. Which other party would have been able to skirt it so easily? Congress did, and nobody, not even media, questions it.

THE BOGEY OF APPEASING THE MINORITIES

2. Congress does hardly anything in terms of welfare measures or preferential treatment for Muslims, yet gives the impression, that it has 'appeased' Muslims for ages. It doesn't even deny this false charge, because it suits it and helps it gain sympathy of minorities and their votes.

Where in India are Muslims appeased? Are they in government jobs or private sector? Riots, encounters, killings, continue unabated and yet the minorities are appeased. Wonderful strategy.

TALKS OF GUJARAT RIOTS BUT NEVER IMPLEMENTED MUMBAI 92-93 RIOT REPORT

3. All the parties talk about Gujarat riots [2002] and then it goes back to Congress' failure in handling the anti-Sikh massacre [riots] of 1984. But how conveniently, Congress forgets all the riots during its regime until recently [Assam].

The riots of Meerut, Moradabad, Bhagalpur, Ferozabad, are history. But what about 1992-93 Mumbai riots, when in two separate rounds, more than 2,000 people were killed. That is recent history, much after 1984. Isn't it? Sudhakar Rao Naik was Chief Minister of Maharashtra then.

Yet, Congress that always promised to implement the Sri Krishna Commission report, never honoured the promise. Prosecution sanctions were not given even in cases against police constables who had opened fire on innocent Muslims, let alone officials.

Congress and its bureaucracy was always intent to saving the killers of Mumbai riots, and other riots. There was never firm action. Had the Congress acted against BJP and Shiv Sena's men involved in riots, history would have been different. But it remained soft and today, it is almost finished.

NO ACTION ON SACHAR PANEL REPORT

4. After its defeat in late 90s, it realised that it had lost Dalits, Tribals and Muslims, its core vote.

In 2004, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government lost, Congress again came back to power.

The justice Rajinder Sachar panel was appointed to submit its report over the socio-economic condition of minorities.

The panel's report clearly showed, how much disadvantaged Muslims have been, and how their representation is low, in jobs.

But for the next ten years, it didn't do anything. The party perhaps felt that it would invite 'majority backlash', which has come anyhow. How it feels, Sonia ji, Rahul ji?

INDISCRIMINATE ARRESTS, LACK OF CORRECTIVE MEASURES

5. In the last ten years, Indian Muslims suffered the worst. There were indiscriminate arrests, fake encounters, branding in the name of terror. It was repeatedly revealed in reports that Congress-ruled Maharashtra led in atrocities on Muslims.

Azamgarh was defamed during Congress rule. BJP was not in power, either in UP or at the Centre. But Congress did nothing to erase the perception or take action against those who used such words. Its police, special cell, and agencies, went on with their actions.

Yet, the genuine demand for a judicial probe in Batla House encounter, was turned down. We don't ask you to speak or act for us but we expected you to be at least transparent. You did nothing. In fact, in cases against right-wing extremists too, there was slackness, as you feared 'backlash'.

Bureaucrats fed you and you believed it, more so, because that was your intent too. Have a nice time, you deserve it. When the trends were coming and it showed 50-55 seats, I wished you would go to less than 50. It happened.

UNPROVOKED KILLINGS AND YET NO ACTION

6. Either in Dhule or in Gopalgarh, Muslims were shot in the chests and head. All these were acts of unprovoked firing. The police were controlled by your government in both states then. But as always, Rajasthan and Maharashtra chief ministers did their best to hush up these incidents.

There is no end to such cases if one starts compiling. The problem is that the mindset is such that atrocities under Congress rule were ignored. Congress was not questioned [even by media]. It may seem harsh but it is the truth that Congress' secularism was flawed, yes.

It lowered the bar and still gave the impression that it was appeasing minorities, though it did the opposite. Just barely a month ago, in Maharashtra's Mumbra, excessive police action took place, and there was no action by Prithvi Raj Chouhan government. Citizens are rid off the arrogant self-styled champions of minorities, great.

SCARED OF ACTING AGAINST TOGADIA!

7. There is tremendous talk of 'appeasement' but whenever there was a case of 'hate speech', Congress governments had a selective approach. Muslim leaders like Owaisi and Imran Masood were booked and jailed and it was a welcome move. But Pravin Togadia was never arrested.

In Maharashtra, after much pressure and media intervention, a case was registered. But the police didn't arrest him. You let down the words like 'secularism', 'justice', and 'law'. You pandered to them and they are having the last laugh, now

PRESIDENTIAL ORDINANCE ROUTE

8. Muslims and Christians among Dalits, Tribals [SCs, STs] can't get benefit of reservation. It is not a law passed by parliament that can make such a distinction that certain communities or religious groups alone are entitled to reservation, while the rest are not.

The discriminatory distinction was made possible by 'secular' Congress through the backdoor entry. They had brought a Presidential ordinance to ensure that the backward Muslims or Christians don't get the benefits of reservation. They have succeeded in it for over 60 years. Despite protests, there has never been a slight attempt to undo the historic injustice.

IDEOLOGY....ERR, WHAT'ZAT?

9. Whether you like it nor not, the BJP has an ideology. Congress doesn't seem to have any ideology. All these years, when BJP targeted it for 'appeasement', Congress did little to spread its ideology or tell its people, or cadre, why secularism is important.

On the other hand, in states, RSS kept expanding. Wherever BJP formed government, the dozens of RSS' institutions in diverse fields, expanded. They got land and all possible help. Today, they are running colleges, hostels, orphanages, doing social work.

In process, its workers and sympathisers also got financially independent. Naturally, they had the freedom to spread ideology while they had no worries about doing something else to earn money. What was Congress doing? Its ground workers have nothing to do except 'kaam karwane ke liye paisa lena, playing the role of middle-men, the euphemism for bribe, for survival.

ABOUT RSS

10. Congress attacked the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), quite often. Its leaders even blamed the Sangh for its cadre's involvement in extremist acts. Definitely, lot of people were arrested. If Congress wished it could have banned the Sangh long back.

It didn't. When people belonging to banned groups are arrested, no one questions or asks if they are indeed member of that group or have a membership receipt. In the case of Sangh, the defence was always that the person may have been a worker but had left us and we keep no record.

Who taught this strategy to them and how you believed it, innocently. Either it had no evidence or it lacked the will. Digvijay Singh was most vocal and said that he had record, but why these records weren't used? Had Congress acted tough, the Sangh wouldn't have grown so powerful. Today, the Congress may have realised the RSS' strength.

11. FEAR OF BJP?

The Congress often said that if BJP came to power, it will be bad for minorities, especially, Muslims. This is unjustified and only aimed at keeping minorities at the Congress' side.

In 1977, Muslims like the rest of India, voted against Congress. Earlier, SVD governments had come to power in many states. In later years, non-Congress governments became the norm in many states. NDA came to power at the Centre.

In states like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Muslims have been living in BJP rule, without riots, and in a much better situation than in Congress-ruled Maharashtra or Assam. Muslims are no cowards who would tremble at anyone's name.

It is a democracy and citizens have the right to change the government. If India decided to throw you out of power and vote the BJP, then this is also a welcome mandate. Muslims have no fear or apprehension, after having suffered innumerable riots in Congress-regimes as well as BJP and other regimes in the past.

NO STEPS FOR CORRECTIVE MEASURES

12. The list of damage done by Congress to Muslims is long. The Congress in UP, after independence, acted with vengeance against Muslims. It is the only state in India, where despite being an official language, Urdu medium schools can't be opened. 

This is violation of the universal right of a child to be able to study in his mother tongue, and a question of principle and rights. As a result, poor Muslim families who can't afford educating kids in private schools, have no option but to send their children to madarsas.

The law hasn't been changed, despite protests for decades. More than 10 lakh signatures were collected, loaded in truck and taken to Delhi, long back by Zakir Husain. Still, nothing happened. Muslims abandoned Congress in UP-Bihar, and later in the rest of India, wherever there was a third option.

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Initially, I thought, it should be titled as 'Letter to Rahul Gandhi (or Sonia Gandhi), but later I realised that perhaps it is all futile. For ten years, they run the government but couldn't honour the basic promises like implementation of Sachar panel report, then what's the point of expecting it from them.

If an ordinary Muslim wants to talk to Congress, there is no option. Other parties and their leaders are on Twitter and Facebook. But not Rahul Gandhi. People don't even have the satisfaction that they have at least conveyed their concern or sent their suggestions.

If you try Congress' in-house portal, Khirki, then also there is no response. I don't know if Rahul Gandhi has ever visited any ordinary Muslim's household to talk about his aspirations and expectations. So-called 'elite' leaders like Salman Khurshid or others like Ahmad Patel are considered 'Muslim leaders'.

Numerous delegations met Congress leaders and PM Manmohan Singh about indiscriminate arrests of Muslim youths, about false terror cases, about inquiry in Batla House, and other issues, but there was never any action.
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This blog has been running for almost a decade now. On this blog earlier too, I criticised Congress more often. As there was expectation from it. There was perhaps a feeling that it will ever take some corrective measures.

But Congress couldn't listen and understand. It is this party that has treated Muslims and many other sections of the country, like dirt. No wonder, Muslims voted for AAP and other parties, wherever they had an option.

In Delhi, in all seats, AAP emerged second. One would probably be a fool to imagine or hope that Congress will learn. In fact, it will just hope that five years later, people would give it a chance again. But that is plain wishful thinking.

Indscribe
May 17, 2014
indscribe@anindianmuslim.com
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[This blogger has neither been a BJP supporter, nor a Congress supporter. For those who are neither for one party or the other, we will keep voting for non-Congress, non-BJP parties. For you, it may be 'wasted votes', but that's my choice, in principle, always]


Thursday, April 16, 2009

Lok Sabha elections 2009: Will Opinion polls prove right?

Real test of credibility of Opinion polls [2009]

Opinion polls have failed quite often but that doesn't deter TV channels from conducting their own pre-election surveys which claim to represent the voters' mood.

In a month, the composition of the Lok Sabha will be clear and I am looking forward to see if any of these polls would be close to the actual mandate given by the Indian electorate. No doubt the opinion polls interest the audience but once again we will see how much the pollsters know the pulse of Indian citizen.

Almost all the channels have given a clear edge to the Congress-led UPA. NDA has been trailing in opinion polls except the one, conducted by India TV. The most recent analysis of NDTV*, shows that UPA is going to get 210 seats [231, if Samajwadi Party supports it after election], followed by NDA 166.

The third and fourth front will be in the position to make or break the next government. I really don't see how Congress is getting 163 seats, as the table above shows. After all, which states are they going to get so many seats from? Isn't it too much in favour of Congress?

As per the analysis:

BJP gets 123, JDU 22, Shiv Sena 9, AGP 4, Akali 3, RLD 3,INLD 1 and NPF 1.
CPI (M)-CPIRSP-Forward Bloc 42, BSP 42, AIADMK 13, TDP 18, BJD 9,TRS 4,PMK 4 &JDS 2
SP 21 RJD-LJP 10 and PRP 2
Independents and others 8
Total 543. Needed 272 for majority. Two MPs are nominated.

It seems so easy here for UPA. If either Left or BSP comes to rescue, the UPA will reach the magic figure. But is it going to be so easy? I don't think so.


Star News-AC Nielson forecast had given UPA 257 and NDA 184 seats. CNN-IBN and CSDS poll gave margins: UPA 215-235 and NDA 165-185. Some other channels including Total TV said that it will be a UPA whitewash and BJP would be nowhere.

India TV however predicts that NDA will emerge as the biggest alliance with 189 seats and UPA will be a close second with 185. With the first phase of poll already behind us, it's a matter of weeks that the likes of Prannoy Roy, Dorab Supariwala, Yogendra Yadav and other psephologists would sit and tells us how close to the results, they were in their opinion polls.

What about Uttar Pradesh?

Nobody seems sure of what is happening in Uttar Pradesh. The state that has a population of 180 million (180 crore) will hold the key. Through out the 90s, BJP remained a favourite for psephologists and they wrote off SP every time. However, Mulayam Singh Yadav emerged stronger with every elections.

Now after Mayawati's victory in the Assembly polls, BSP seems the most intriguing party to everyone. Pollsters are even predicting 40 seats out of 80 to BSP. This is despite the fact that Brahmins are not going to vote for BSP with the same passion which they did in the Assembly polls when the issue was a change in the state government.

Besotted by Behenji

Many see a revival of BJP. However, a Varun Gandhi episode can't change the caste-based UP politics overnight. BSP had a tally of 19 seats in the last Parliament. It may go up to 24 or 26 but I find it unbelievable that their vote percent would shoot up as much that Mayawati would be able to bag half of the seats of the state.

In fact, these days everybody seems to love calling Mayawati an enigma. She is already being touted a Queen. I have nothing against her but I feel, most of the journalists are in awe of her as she doesn't allow anybody to get close to her. NDTV gives BSP 42 seats. Is it plausible? Of course, SP may lose some vote but it will hold its turf.

Either it's Lok Sabha election 2004 or the Vidhan Sabha elections of 2002 and 2007, SP has maintained its vote share at 26%. No other party has managed to do that (except Congress at a mere 8.8%). BSP had in the meantime increased its share considerably (by +7%) while BJP lost as much (-7%).

In 2004, SP had won an astonishing 37 seats followed by BSP that had 19 seats, BJP could win 10 and Congress 9. RLD had got 3 while two Independents had entered Parliament from UP. Now let's wait for May 16, and see correct these psephologists have been about Election 2009.

What about Bihar-West Bengal?

Apart from UP, I am in interested in the performance of Left in West Bengal and whether the alliance of Lalu Yadav-Ram Vilas Paswan will stop the Nitish Kumar's JD (U)-BJP juggernaut in Bihar. Both have solid and transferable vote banks but if opinion polls give them just 10 seats, I wonder at the sample size of the electorate that was taken in consideration.

In one of the first polls, two decades back Congress was given a majority though it was VP Singh's National Front that ultimately formed government with BJP's support. Over the years, we have seen polls go horribly wrong. In Tamil Nadu polls had missed the clear strong electoral wave.

So I am eagerly awaiting the election results to see the veracity of these polls. Howsoever, smartly these results may have been presented, it's tough to come out with figures that can be justified in case either of the fronts emerges clear leader.

Why it's tough to predict in India?

We don't have a US like system. Neither do we have a two-party system. Often electorate doesn't know the (regional) party he has voted for, would end up supporting Manmohan Singh or LK Advani or neither.

TDP, AIADMK, BJD, RLD and many others can go anywhere. In multi-cornered [three and four cornered] fights, as in most UP seats, mathematics can't work. So it's not statistics alone that can lead us close to the real picture.

Especially, when the people hide their support. Muslims, Backwards and Dalits often publicly name Congress or BJP as the party of their choice in UP but end up voting for BSP or SP. So, the credibility of the polls is at a real test in this election. Waiting for May 16. And if they go wrong will the psephologists, accept it and say sorry!

See related stories on Elections 2009 on this blog:

BJP, Congress equally worried about numbers: Who will form government UPA or NDA?
The Opinion polls give Congress edge, BJP slipping
Will UP Muslims vote for Samajwadi Party?

[*Link to the above-mentioned programme/NDTV analysis]

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Whither West Bengal: Is Communist Citadel Crumbling?

West Bengal has been an impregnable Leftist fortress for over a quarter century but there is a feeling in this election that the Communists are losing ground in the State.

Though in earlier elections also, especially when Mamata Banerji formed her Mahajot, there were similar speculations. However, the difference is that even Communist leaders are feeling that there is a sense of disenchantment with the CPI (M) among section of voters.

For decades the rural populace strongly voted for the Communists. They had benefited from the land reforms and Jyoti Basu enjoyed an uninterrupted reign in the State for decades.

But the industrialisation efforts of Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee received a jolt with the mishandling of situation in Nandigram. The farmers feared that land, their prized possession, would be taken over.

Besides, Muslims, who form 25% strong population in the state, are also unhappy, as they realise they haven't received adequate attention. The Bengali Muslim's share in government jobs remain abysmally low. [Photo: Congress candidate from Malda, Mausam Benazir Noor, the niece of late ABA Ghani Khan Chaudhary tries to beat the heat]

The findings of Sachar Commission were a wakeup call for Muslims. Despite repeated promises there was no development in areas dominated by Muslims and Urdu was not accorded the status of official languages in the districts where Urdu-speakers are predominant.

The fact that unlike other states, West Bengal (and Assam) have more Muslims in rural areas than urban agglomerations, can cause further trouble for Communists. The strong anti-incumbency after decades of rule can be damaging.

Star News' latest opinion poll

However, the Left can still tide over it. The latest Opinion Poll [Star TV-AC Nielson survey for Lok Sabha elections 2009] predict that Communists may just manage their hold in WB.

It gives 22 seats of CPI-M and its allies including Forward Bloc while Trinamool and Congress will together get 20 seats. The BJP remains a non-entity in the state. Also, CPI (M) will not be as major a party as it was in the Lok Sabha.

The poll says that after Congress (155) and BJP (147), the largest parties will be Samajwadi Party (28) and BSP (26). As a block, the Leftists--CPM, CPI, RSP and FB will get 35 seats from West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala.

Mamta may get benefited with the alliance. But the fact remains that shifting of Tata's Nano project hasn't gone well with the voters either. [The poll shows 202 seats for UPA, 191 for NDA, 102 for Third Front and 39 for Fourth Front (RJD-SP-LJP)]

This is going to be a setback for the Marxists. But it seems that they will manage to retain the state somehow. Is it because of the reason that the West Bengal doesn't want to go with the rest?

Bengali bhadraloke loves rejecting mainstream parties

Bengal has a strong identity. It had a renaissance unlike other states and gave the nation legendary reformist personalities like Raja Ram Mohan Roy, Rabindra Nath Tagore, Ishwarchandra Vidyasagar, Swami Vivekananda, Sri Aurobindo, Subhas Chanra Bose and Kazi Nazrul Islam.

And we are all too aware of the saying 'What Bengal thinks today, India thinks tomorrow'. The Bengali has a strong sense of culture and identity. The bhadraloke has refined tastes and loves to be a rebel.

It is this romance with the rebellion that perhaps prompt the West Bengal voter to remain different from the rest of the country by voting for a party that doesn't have much popularity in other parts of the nation, especially Delhi. After the Congress government had sternly dealt with radical youths during the Naxalbari movement.

Or it is the rejection of the mainstream parties that gives a sense of satisfaction to Bengal. Probably it is this tendency of the voter to rebuff the Congress and the BJP that may just help Communists survive another Parliamentary election.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Lok Sabha election 2009: BJP, Congress equally worried about numbers


In just over two weeks, the first phase of the general election will start but leaders of both the major national parties are unsure about how to gather the seats. Privately they concede that they don't know where they will get the numbers from.

Congress in trouble

While the Congress is in serious trouble because it has to face the anti-incumbency and it failed to form alliances, the bigger problem is that it doesn't seem to be getting seats from anywhere, unless the Indian electorate suddenly gets enamoured of Congress.

If you look at the map showing victories of Congress, BJP and other parties in the last Lok Sabha elections, Congress is just not visible in major states stretching from UP, Rajasthan to MP, Chhattisgarh and even beyond.

Andhra Pradesh crucial

Had it not been the sweep in Andhra Pradesh (AP) in the election in 2004 when the party had won 36 seats along with its allies [Congress 29, TRS 5, Communists 4], it won't have been able to form the government.

This year, it seems difficult for Congress to repeat the magic. TDP is likely to do well. The best Congress can hope is that it doesn't get routed. In Tamil Nadu, the loss of an ally like PMK that has a transferrable 6% vote is going to cost dear.

The party is fighting without any partners in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. It can only hope that it will do better in the states where it reached its nadir like Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and do well in Karnataka.

BJP's woes: Saturation in heartland

Ask any BJP leader off the record, he will tell you that the party workers are worried how to get to even 150 when they had just managed to reach 138 in the 2004 Parliamentary polls when Atal Bihari Vajpayee's personality had dominated the party's campaign.

The bulk of seats had come from the states where it has already reached a saturation. BJP had got 25 out of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh. It had won 21 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan and had emerged victorious in 14 seats in Gujarat. "We can't peform better than this", says most of the BJP leaders in private conversation.

BJP hopes to add to its tally from UP

Besides, it can't hope for a better performance than the 18 MPs it had got in Karnataka in the last elections. In Bihar, the alliance of RJD with Ram Vilas Paswan, means that JD (U)-BJP would not have an easy win like in the Assembly elections, as Paswan's Dalit votes are solidly behind him and are as transferable as Mayawati's constituency in Uttar Pradesh.

No wonder the BJP doesn't mind the Varun Gandhi act. Hoping that the communal polarisation and the 'Hindu victimhood' card can fetch it a few seats in the state. The alliane with Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) gives it the hope.

That again brings us to the question that which party will emerge as the single biggest group in the Lok Sabha and which alliance will form the government. In all fairness, it is too difficult to predict, the race is narrowing down, and most will depend on the so-called third and fourth front parties.

Though several opinion polls give an edge to United Progressive Alliance (UPA) over the BJP-led NDA, I don't think it is as simple. No mathematics or the bigger sample sizes can predict the outcome of Indian elections where 700 million would vote, many of them not revealing their cards in pre-election surveys.

We have reached a stage where there will be nothing like a clear mandate for any party or any alliance. It can be just the comfortness level among the regional parties with either the Congress or the BJP, that will determine the winner. And, of course, fortuity.

[Map showing constituencies won by various parties in the last Lok Sabha elections is obtained from the wikipedia page. Link]

Monday, March 23, 2009

Opinion poll gives Congress edge, BJP slipping in Election 2009!

Just now another Opinion Poll has given the Congress an edge and predicted a victory for UPA in the Lok Sabha elections 2009.

The Star News-AC Nielson poll predicts 257 seats for the UPA and 184 for the NDA with Third Front getting nearly 96 seats and six to the others in the 545 [543=2 nominated MPs] member house.

Can it be true?

Strangely, there seems no difference in the results of General election 2004 and 2009 if we believe this poll that gives Congress 144 seats and BJP 137. The number of seats in the last election was Congress 145 and 138 for BJP.

So the poll suggests that there will be no change, just one seat less for both the major parties! So none of them performing good or bad compared to each other. I find it unusual. There are surprises like DMK again getting a high number of seats. Left is not with Congress.

Besides, there could be anti-incumbency at work and the poll itself doesn't show any sudden rise in number of seats for Congress. So it is just a question of right or wrong allies? Else, how can UPA be declared on its way towards victory and BJP getting defeated!

In the past also, it was Tamil Nadu that had embarrassed the Indian psephologists when they were completely flummoxed by the voter. Conventional wisdom says that Jayalalitha should gain but the opinion poll gives 24 seats to Karunanidhi's DMK and just 9 to AIADMK, while six go to the rest.

And where is the UPA? With RJD and LJP contesting the election together and not leaving any seat for Congress and SP having no truck with Congress, will the situation be same. Had the poll taken care of the recent changes?

It seems the seats of not just Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti and Lalu Yadav's RJD, but also Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party have been included to take the UPA tally up to 257, on the basis of the assumption that these three parties will not join NDA at any cost.

The AC-Nielson Star News poll results for 2009 elections:

United Progressive Alliance [UPA] 257
National Democratic Allianec [NDA] 184
Third Front 96
Rest 6

Now see the position of the parties:

Congress 144
BJP 137
Left Front 34
Others: SP 30, BSP 21, DMK 24, JDU 16, NCP 13, TMC 13, TDP 14, Shiv Sena 12, RJD 11, AIADMK 9, LJP 6, JD (S) 4, AGP 6, RLD 6, TRS 3, NC 2, PDP 1, MUL 3, INLD 1, JMM 1 etc.

In West Bengal, the Communists are heading for a bad show and Mamata Bannerjee's TMC along with Congress will together bag 20 seats while in Bihar, RJD will be reduced to 11 despite the coalition, says the poll. LJP may get 6 while Nitish Kumar gets 15.

In Maharashtra it's evenly split. Congress 12, NCP 13, Shiv Sena 12 and BJP 10. The bulk of seats for BJP will come from MP (25), Rajasthan (14), Karnataka (16) and Gujarat (16).

It's not easy to fathom the mind of Indian voter and howsoever large the sample size may be, it's difficult to make any predictions in a country as huge as India where often it is three or four-cornered fight.

Why poll appears in Congress' favour?

What seems going in Congress favour is that, unlike Atal Bihari Vajpayee who had a 24party coalition, the current BJP has barely 6 partners. TDP, a major party has vowed not to go with BJP.

However, Congress doesn't have Left parties with it, though SP compensates it to an extent. The Congress will have to deal with growing aspirations of allies as regional satraps would want their pound of flesh agressively.

It is in such situations that BSP will play a crucial role. Left may not be as big a player as it was but it will certainly play a role in post-election scenario. A change in Tamil Nadu or an upset in any other state, can change the situation drastically.

In fact, the polls don't give much importance to the third parties or the prospects of a hugn parliament. That's the reason the predictions appear more in favour the Congress.

The Previous Poll

Earlier, the CNN-IBN and CSDS pre-election survey had also given similar results but it didn't give exact figure. It had given UP 215-235 seats, NDA 165-185 and the Third Front 90-100.

The third front seems set to get 100 seats again and that's no small number. Let's wait just a few days to see how close AC Nielson-Star TV poll is to the real composition of Indian parliament.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Elections 2009: Will Majlis lose Hyderabad?


For the first time in decades the hegemony of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) seems to be under a serious threat in Hyderabad.

Zahid Ali Khan, the editor of the renowned Urdu daily Siasat, who has been involved with social work, is contesting the election as an independent candidate. He has managed to get the support of virutally every party on the political spectrum.

The Majlis remains strong but this is the first election after the demise of veteran Sultan Salahuddin Owaisi and his son sitting MP Asaduddin may not find it a cakewalk as it was in the 2004 elections when his father had vacated the constituency for him and he managed to reach the Parliament.

Zahid Ali Khan is seen a progressive leader. He has the right credentials and has managed a rainbow coalition with half-a-dozen parties supporting him. These parties have decided not to field any candidate in support of Khan.

The Leftists, Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam, Telugu Desam Party (TDP), K Chandrashekhar Rao's TRS and several other parties have come out in Khan's support. Their aim is to finish Majlis' stronghold on Hyderabad.

Though it is believed that despite the middle-class and educated class openly speaking in favour of Zahid Ali Khan and opposting the hooliganism by Majlis cadre, the masses may still vote for Majlis.

Khan says that he is fighting a corrupt and communal party that has not brought any change to the lives of even ordinary Muslims for which it claims to speak.

Siasat is considered one of the most respected newspapers and has played an important role in Muslim society in the Deccan. However, it is felt that despite the grand alliance which Khan seems to have forged, it may not translate into votes. PHOTO: Asaduddin Owaisi (Right)

Assault on Zahid Ali Khan turned the tables
It was the attack on Khan that had led to widespread condemnation. It was suspected that Majlis cadre were involved in the incident. Subsequently, Khan became the rallying point of all anti-MIM parties.

However, if the non-Muslim voters throw their weight behind the joint opposition candidate [Khan], Owaisi may have a tough time. Twice in the past, BJP candidates have managed to secure over 4 lakh votes and had once nearly given a shock to the late Salahuddin Owaisi.

If these votes go to Khan apart from part of the Muslim vote, then Owaisi is in serious trouble. BJP is yet to decide whether to field any candidate from Hyderabad. It has been urged not to fileld any candidate to facilitate Khan's victory and in process end the Majlis' hegemony.

The Majlis has in early years played a role in the politics of Hyderabad. After the police action, it was involved in social work and after Abdul Wahid Owaisi, his son Salahuddin who was termed Salar-e-Millat won Assembly election for over decades .

Later Owaisi became invincible as fropm 1984 till 2004 he never lost the Parliamentary election. However, there is strong criticism of the family-centric party that revolves around Owaisis. The official party website mentions even Asaduddin and his brother Akbaruddin as Legends.

The Owaisis had to start an Urdu paper Etemaad to hold sway on people and counter the other influential Urdu dailies--Munsif and Siasat along with Rahnuma-e-Deccan that had joined hands and were opposing Majlis' role.

But MIM hopes that after the recent delimitation the rise is Muslim votes in the Hyderabad Lok Sabha constitutency, it has an edge even in wort case scenerio. The party had successfully faced a challenge from Amanullah Khan's Majlis Bachao Tehrik [MBT] in the past. It remains to be seen if the editor-turned-politician manages to stage a coup.

Read an earlier post on All India Muslim Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen on this blog

Friday, March 06, 2009

Lok Sabha elections 2009: Will UP Muslims vote for SP?

Elections are just round the corner and Uttar Pradesh, with 80 constituencies hold the key to the Centre.

Neither the Congress nor the BJP appear getting more than 150 seats in the current scenario. With Left no longer keen to support Congress, there is an uncertainty as to which alliance will form the government.

The regional parties are flexing muscles due to this crisis. From Sharad Pawar to Chandrababu Nayudu and Lalu Yadav, every self-styled satrap is dreaming of becoming the Prime Minister, just like HD Devegowda and IK Gujaral had managed to do, with outside support.

It is this reason that UP has again become crucial state in this election. Last election despite SP and BSP getting chunk of seats, they couldn't wield proportionate influence at the Centre.

But with Communist parties upset with Congress, UP has become a vital state. This is the reason that SP has tied with Kalyan Singh despite criticism and fear of vote loss. And BJP is fielding all its old warhorses.

Will Muslims vote for Samajwadi Party?

In over half-a-dozen Assembly and Parliamentary elections since early 90s, every time there is the speculation that Muslims will leave Mulayam Singh. But psephologists have been proved wrong.

The reason is that while Congress remains an almost non-player, Muslims aren't exactly sure about BSP. Mayawati does speak out Muslims a couple of times every year, she is not too concerned about them.

I personally also feel that she is not aware about sentiments of Muslims as hers is a party that in its banners and posters never gave any importance to Muslim heroes--be in the field of nation building, literature or social welfare. Not even for the sake of inclusion can you see a banner or poster recognising Muslim presence at the BSP's conferences and functions.

She doesn't seem to have any plan about welfare of the community. Ever since she cosied up with the Upper Castes, Muslims seem to have been forgotten. However, there is the usual speculation whether Muslims will vote for SP?

Over 55% Muslims in UP have voted for Mulayam Singh in most elections. Though it's a substantial percent, the figure suggests that there is considerable vote going to BSP and other parties including BSP, Congress and Lok Dal with even a very marginal vote to BJP. So in that sense, it's not that all Muslims just go and push the button for bicycle.

Dalits are considered the biggest block in UP with 21% populace followed by Muslims (19%) and Yadavas (11%). Brahmins constitute nearly 7% of the voter while the rest of the Upper Caste are around 6%. Castes like Kurmis, Lodhs, Jats have areas of concentration spread across the state.

People just want peace

The results of the Bhadohi Assembly by-election that was declared just three days back, have again proved that Muslims haven't drifted. Else, the victory of SP wouldn't have been possible.

The BSP candidate was quite strong and there were several Muslim contestants in the fray but the SP candidate won though he isn't a Muslim. Every party had made it a prestige issue because it was the last poll before Parliamentary elections.

Bhadohi has 37% Muslim electorate and it's quite clear that they voted for cycle. Congress managed to get just 2,500 votes. Why? Clearly, it's not that the goodwill earned by Mulayam Singh Yadav during the demolition of Babri Masjid, is reason enough for this support.

Journalist Zafar Agha says that Bhadohi residents (like most of the silent rural and poor voter that doesn't speak on TV and whose opinion is not sought in discussions) haven't forgotten the riots that were an annual feature till 1993, when the first Mulayam Singh-led government had come to power in UP.

"The weavers of Bhadohi, mostly Ansaris, must have recalled the horrific communal riots that occurred in towns of UP for forty years under Congress rule". He mocks at sections who said that SP will lose the support because of rebellion by Shafiqur Rahman Barq or dissent shown by Azam Khan and others of his ilk.

Perhaps, he is right. It is a hard truth. For the last 16 years, UP has seen no major communal riot. Of course, BSP has also been in the power. Elsewhere Muslims do vote for Congress, but it seems in UP they are still wary because they haven't forgotten the past when towns where the Muslims were employed in industries were constantly rocked by riots--Firozabad, Moradabad, Aligarh et al.

Peace and riot-free atmosphere, it seems, they yearn for. But the day is still far when ensuring peace and law-and-order would be considered the most basic qualification of any party to run the government.

Read earlier posts on this blog:

Congress and communal riots in India

Fall of Congress in Uttar Pradesh