Less Muslim MPs in Lok Sabha but no regrets

Though there has been a significant decline in representation of Muslims in this Lok Sabha election, Muslims don't seem to mind it, as the priority was to vote for suitable candidates irrespective of caste or religion. 

There has been nearly 20% downfall in number of Muslims elected to Lok Sabha in this elections compared to 2004. 

The figure is 29* out of 543. So Muslims will account for just 5% of MPs in the lower house of Parliament. Mukhtar Ansari, Rizwan Zahir and Taslimuddin are out of the house. 

M Shahabuddin's wife contested from Siwan but lost. Clearly, Muslims largely voted for better candidates than Muslim contestants. And it's a good sign. An active parliamentarian who promises to solve basic problems of the area is many times better than a candidate of one's caste or community who may not do anything. 

Evidently, CPM heavy-weight Mohammad Salim was defeated from a Muslim-majority constituency. Or the other veteran Hannan Mollah who lost in West Bengal. No Delimitation Effect In fact, after delimitation, it was felt that Muslims will win more seats because several constituencies that were earlier reserved for SCs and STs though had high minority concentration, had been de-reserved. 

But this didn't happen. So many candidates lost that one almost lost track. Shahid Siddiqui, Tariq Anwar, Rashid Masood, Noor Bano, CK Jaffer Sharief, AR Antulay, Maulana Maudood Madani, Salim Sherwani, Akbar Ahmad Dumpy, Dr Javed Akhtar, Afzal Ansari, Ilyas Azmi, Shahid Akhlaq, AA Fatimi et al. BJP's Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi also lost at the multi-cornered fight in Rampur where Jaya Prada won despite Azam's Khan sabotage attempt. 

AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi did retain Hyderabad seat by defeating Zahid Ali Khan, who managed to secure nearly 2 lakh votes. The new entrants include M Azharuddin and the young lady Mausam Benazir Noor from Malda. There won't be any veterans except Farooq Abdullah and a few other recognised faces like E Ahamed and Salman Khurshid. Perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal has entered Lok Sabha from Assam. 

SP wins 23 seats but no Muslim MP

In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims voted for Congress and SP while Mayawati's BSP didn't get adequate Muslim support. Except a few seats where Ulema Council and Peace Party candidates took away fraction of vote, mostly Muslims voted for non-Muslim candidates of clean-image. What else explains the victory of SP in 23 seats, though not a single Muslim has won on SP ticket. 

This is a very strange situation. SP couldn't have won so many seats without Muslim vote, as Yadav population is barely 10-12% in UP while Muslims form 18-19% of the electorate. Though it's tally has gone down, it remains the third biggest party in terms of seats in parliament after Congress and BJP. 

While BSP that has over 22% strong Dalit voter can win without Muslim support, SP can't win as many seats, unless it gets any other important community or section in its fold. Clearly, Muslims voted for Congress and SP. So when Muslims voted, they went for party and candidate, not the 'Muslim identity.

In some places where BSP put up Muslim candidates, the party got the votes of the community. But BSP's other candidates didn't get the support of community. State-wise Muslim MPs Of the 29 Muslims elected to Lok Sabha, Congress has maximum winners from its ranks followed by National Conference and BSP (4 each), Muslim League and TMC (2 each), CPM, JDU, BJP, AIMIM, AUDF and DMK (1 each). 

None of the Muslim candidates of RJD, SP or any other party could reach the Parliament. For those interested in statistics, the highest number of Muslims was elected to the Lok Sabha in 1980 when the figure was 48. In 1984 also, the number of Muslim MPs was 41.

In the last election the figure was 36. In this election the 29 Muslim candidates who won from various states include: UP (7), WB (6), Kashmir (4), Bihar (3), Kerala (3), Tamil Nadu (2), Assam (2), AP (1) and Laccadives (1). From Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Jharkhand, no Muslim contestant emerged winner. [*There is confusion regarding status of Jehanara Chaudhary alias Rani Narah who has won from Assam and Kabir Suman who had converted to Islam.] See the list at TCN

Indian voters stun BJP, Congress juggernaut rolls on: Lok Sabha election results 2009

The Congress' victory and its revival has surprised even the most optimistic party workers who till recently appeared unsure that they would be able to reach close to 190* seats.

The 'weak' Manmohan Singh has knocked the 'Iron Man' LK Advani out of the electoral ring. Nobody had anticipated that the UPA would get the mandate once again, despite the anti-incumbency.

Such was the propaganda machinery of BJP and failure of TV channels to notice any under current, that even the senior Congress leaders would say that they expect 150 plus seats. On the eve of counting Digvijay Singh, who had to speak optimistically, gave a figure of 170. In his heart he must have been thinking of 150 as a more pragmatic number. However, the party has seen a magical revival, especially in Uttar Pradesh.

Not just rural India, the urban voters also rooted for the sober, down-to-earth Sardar and rejected the 'loud-mouthed' BJP leaders' who were always thundering and threatening.

There is a word in Hindi-Urdu: Badbola. Perhaps, it is this 'badbolapan' which Indians don't like. After the failure of India shining, this is the second BJP defeat in successive elections.

The 'Iron Man' failed to find favour among the electorate. The BJP's self-proclaimed toughness on terrorism didn't cut ice with the Indian voters. Perhaps, the histrionics didn't go down well.

May be Indians do have a soft corner for the dynasty but it's not just Nehru-Gandhi family but the humility of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi that does strike a chord with the voters. Rahul's visits to Dalit hutments and decision to sleep in huts at night seems to have sent a message. Though BJP leaders then mocked at him, but he didn't reply in the same idiom.

It is certainly a vote against Advani. The mild and soft-spoken Vajpayee was no longer on the scene. And voters were quite clear that they were exercising vote for the Parliament. That's why Congress had unexpected gains from across the country, even exceeding the most sympathetic opinion polls and exit polls.

The predictions had failed to understand the mood of voters, who were just not ready to go for communal, divisive and emotive issues.

Now there can be innumerable analyses like the success of NREGA (National Rural Guarantee Scheme) or Sonia Gandhi's charisma coupled with Rahul-Priyanka's charm who didn't aspire for any position just like their mother compared to octogenarian Advani's yearning for the post of PM and Narendra Modi's stake as next Prime Minister.

Urban middle-class Indian may call it gimmick but for rural folk, it is something that matters. Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar's JDU, Navin Patnaik's BJD, Mamata Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress, Karunanidhi's DMK and Y Rajashekhar Reddy are among the other heroes of the election.

The most spectacular results of the Lok Sabha election 2009:

1. Left citadel crumbled. That's a lesson to arm-chair Communists like Prakash Karat who don't come from Trade Unionist background, but run party like private-owned company. Karat acted like a despot.

2. Most of the psephologists were claiming that the 'enigmatic' Mayawati's BSP was going to win over 40 seats (though I felt that she was not going to increase to her tally and had mentioned it) and she stands more or less at the same number she was in the last election.

3. Congress revival in the Hindustani heartland is astonishing. The Upper Castes who had voted for BSP in Assembly elections voted for Brahmin candidates of Congress. A section of Muslims too voted for Congress' Muslim candidates like M Azharuddin.

4. Yes, everybody expected RJD to perform badly but Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP's poor performance has been a real surprise. What happened to his committed voter? Development and comparative decline in crime during Nitish Kumar's regime split even the strong Dalit (and Muslim) vote of Paswan.

5. Urban areas including national capital Delhi and the financial capital Mumbai that was targeted by terrorists, snubbed BJP. This once again proves that Indians don't like loud war-mongering leaders. This is a setback for BJP.