Can the BJP double its existing tally in Lok Sabha to form next government in 2014?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently has 116 seats in the Parliament. It needs to double its tally in order to form the next government at the centre.

The party says that Narendra Modi wave will help it reach the magic figure of 272, which is required for a simple majority in the Lok Sabha.

If the party gets anything around 220-230, it can hope to form the government with the help of its allies, under the banner of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Barely a week from now, it will be clear if the party is able to reach the figure. Do we need to even discuss it when just a few days remain before result of the 2014 lok sabha elections is out.

In fact, the BJP's publicity blitz makes it appear as if 272 will be easily attainable for the BJP (even without allies). However, it is easier said than done.While it is true that there is disenchantment with the Congress-led UPA government.

But getting almost double the seats is no mean task for the BJP either. From Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, the party is likely to get maximum seats. In Chhattisgarh, it will not be as one-sided though because the difference in Congress and BJP vote is quite narrow.

Apart from North India, Maharashtra will also be crucial

The BJP hopes to do better in Maharashtra due to anti-Congress mood apart from getting substantial seats in Karnataka. It can't expect too much from South India despite its new coalitions in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

In Kerala and West Bengal, a couple of wins would not help much. Now, what it needs is a good tally from UP and Bihar. BJP is hoping 50-55 seats from UP. Even most opinion polls and surveys show that BJP has gained ground due to 'Modi wave'.

But the ground situation isn't as simple. BSP and SP have their core vote and it is more on the expense of Congress that BJP will gain. Can the BJP get 30-35 seats in UP? Even this number is not easy to achieve. In Bihar, it will be even more difficult.

In last Lok Sabha election, BJP had got most seats from Karnataka, Bihar

A state-wide analysis shows that in 2009 general election, BJP had got 19 seats from Karnataka. Can the party get as many seats again from the state? Secondly, NDA had performed too well in Bihar and had got 32 seats.

While JDU got 12, BJP had 20 MPs from Bihar. In Gujarat, Orissa and MP, the BJP may do slightly better compared to last election. But in Punjab, BJP-Akali Dal are not in an advantageous situation this time. AAP is a factor here.

UP had just 10 BJP MPs in the outgoing Lok Sabha and in this state BJP hopes to improve its figure. In Bihar, after the split with JDU, the vote share of  BJP has come down. Can the 'wave' be so strong that it would compensate for it?

BJP needs an extraordinary performance in the election

Reports suggest Lalu Yadav-led RJD's resurgence in the state. If the BJP manages to reach 215-225, it will be an overall gain of 100-110 seats compared to 2009 elections. This will also be extraordinary performance.

The NDA can then stake its claim to form government, as the single biggest coalition. Rahul Gandhi has said that if Congress doesn't get adequate number of seats, his party would sit in opposition, rather than support a third front government.

This is pre-results talk and things can change later. The BJP campaign [and RSS] suggests that if the party doesn't get majority on its own and has to depend on alliance partners, even then it will not compromise on anyone, except, Narendra Modi, to be its PM candidate.

The election has been fought on his name and it is definitely because him that the BJP cadre got energised. Let's see how far he takes the BJP from the present status [116 MPs]. Everyone is waiting for May 16, the day when EVMs will tell us, whom the Indian electorate has chosen to govern us. 

Constituency for minority candidates : Just 2.5% minority votes, yet Betul was once considered a safe seat for Muslims in Lok Sabha

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In certain states in India, especially, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, it has become nearly impossible now for Muslims to win Lok Sabha election.

But for decades, Betul, a constituency in central India, that has barely 2.5% minorities elected candidates belonging to the minority communities.

In fact, it had been labelled as a minority seat. For decades, not just winners but opposition candidates here were also Muslims. The constituency came into existence in 1967.

In the first two elections, veteran Congress leader, late NKP Salve, a Christian, won from here on Congress ticket. After his victories in 1967 and 1971,  he lost the election from here in 1977. Subhash Ahuja who contested on Lok Dal ticket, had won that year.

In the year 1980, Congress strongman from Bhopal, Ghufran-e-Azam contested from Betul and got elected from here. He defeated Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS) candidate Subhash Chand Ahuja by nearly 30,000 votes.

In the next election, in the year 1984, former Olympian [hockey player] Aslam Sher Khan won from this constituency. He fought on Congress ticket and defeated independent candidate MN Buch, a retired bureaucrat, by a margin of 37.950 votes.

Five years later, yet another famous Muslim leader Arif Beg [recalled for his 'mere mulk ke maaliko' address for the crowd in election rallies], contested from here. Beg was fielded by the BJP. It was the era of Ram Mandir movement.

Beg defeated Congress' Aslam Sher Khan by over 40,000 votes. But two years later, Aslam Sher Khan avenged his defeat. In 1991 election, Aslam Sher Khan, who fought on Congress ticket, defeated BJP's Arif Beg, by 22,733 votes.

In 1996, BJP gave ticket to Vijay Khandelwal, who defeated Aslam Sher Khan by a huge margin. It was post-1992 era, communal polarisation had begun in MP, and it was becoming nearly impossible for Muslims to win even in the Assembly elections.

Congress tried a minority candidate from here, just once, after this defeat. In 1999, it gave ticket to Ghufran Azam. he secured over 2 lakh votes (nearly 39%) but lost by a margin of 64,000 votes. Since t hen, neither BJP nor Congress fielded a minority candidate.

But the seat is an example o.f how minority candidates have won [and can win] from constituencies where they have very small concentration. This is really the beauty of Indian democracy. The overwhelming majority of Hindus voted for Muslims at this seat and helped launch the political career of the Muslim politicians.

In 32 years, there were ten elections here. Of the 20 candidates who won and lost here, 12 were from minority community. Often the winner and loser were both Muslim, despite the fact that minority communities are barely 2.5% of the population in this constituency.

Don't blame parties alone for failing to field candidates

It is easy to blame parties for not giving proper representation. But the fact is that there are few leaders worthy of ticket in the region. The first and most basic job of a a politician is to remain active in their area.

If they work in the constituency and nurture it, people will remember them and even reward them. However, they expect that the party would give ticket and this should be enough for them to sail through. And those who lose once, just leave the area--going to State capital or national capital, forgetting the electorate.

Times have changed, they must realise.

Bano Bi loves to fight elections: Indian woman in the fray during Lok Sabha polls has contested 12 elections now

Everyone knows Bano Bi, an elderly Muslim woman, in Mandsaur, a district in Western Madhya Pradesh. Bano Bi is 70.

But she loves to fight elections. This year it is no exception. She is again in the fray for the Lok Sabha. The elderly woman has been fighting Lok Sabha [Parliamentary] elections since 1991.

Also, she has fought Vidhan Sabha [Assembly] elections regularly, apart from a civic body poll. Though she is always contesting polls, people don't feel that she is there just to cut the votes.

They know it's her passion. Once, she had even come third after the Congress and BJP candidates. Bano Bi knows that she doesn't have a strong chance.

But she feels that it is important to contest. Her family members support her in canvassing and in arranging the funds for running the publicity campaign.

Bano Bi is fighting on the ticket of Bharatiya Minorities Surkasha Mahasangh (BMSM). The BMSM is a basically a politically party with roots in Maharashtra, where it puts up candidates.

The BMSM's national president is Sundar Shaekhar, who is the adopted son of Haji Mastan, the Mumbai-based underworld don who had later tried his luck in politics too. Mastan couldn't get success in his avatar as a politician.

The election scene is quite interesting in Mandsaur constituency. Congress' Meenakshi Natarajan is hoping to retain her seat. BJP has fielded Sudhir Gupta. The maverick Paras Saklecha has been fielded by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The BSP has fielded an interesting man, Kranti Parivartan. Besides, only a few other recognised parties have fielded candidates viz. All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) that has fielded Sheikh Azizuddin Qureshi, Bahujan Mukti Party [Raju Malviya] and Bahujan Sangharsh Dal [Banshi Patidar].

The electorate in Mandsaur have voted, and it will be clear in a fortnight, who will be their new Member of Parliament (MP). Bano Bi is happy at contesting the poll. Once the election is over, she will start preparing for the nagar palika [municipal corporation] election which will be held soon. 

Religion as a factor in Indian elections: Muslim, Sikh, Christian majority seats and constituencies that elect Upper Caste Hindu candidates

With elections round the corner, newspapers have again focused on factors like caste, community and religion, which do affect the choice of candidates as well as voting in polls in India.

Dainik Bhaskar, a leading Hindi newspaper, has come out with an interesting report on page 1.

The report tells us about how certain seats are perceived as 'Muslim seats', 'Sikh seats' or Upper Caste Hindu seats.

Most of these are constituencies that have large percent of voters of the group.

We all know that the religious or caste affiliation of the voter and the contestants do matter to some extent.

Sometimes the constituency may not have the particular group as majority or a block.

Yet, it is seen as the constituency where candidate belonging to that group is given ticket and wins easily. Interestingly, while focus is often on Muslim votes, because of a myth that Muslims vote 'en bloc'. In election season, such reports come too often. Journalists seem to enjoy filing such reports and discussing them.

But this report interestingly talks of Savarnas vote [Upper caste Hindu population] too. It says that though the Upper Caste aren't a numerical majority in most seats, still, they command wide influence and around 125 constituencies regularly send Upper Caste contestants to the Parliament.

125 Upper Caste influence constituencies or 'Savarna Seats'

The report says that Lucknow may have a large Muslim population and also strong Shia populace, but most of the parties always fielded Upper Caste candidates from here. Either Shivrajwati Nehru, Hemwanti Nandan Bahuguna or Sheela Kaul who won thrice and later, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who won five times from here.

It also lists Indore as an 'Upper Caste' seat from where 'savarnas' have been winning for 45 years. Then, there is Allahabad constituency, that elected Pt Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Murli Manohar Joshi, Amitabh Bachchan, VP Singh and Revti Rama Singh, all upper caste Hindus.

It lists 36 seats in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where only Upper Caste candidates win. While Punjab has 32% Dalits, more than half  of the seats in the state are cornered by the Upper Castes.

The 'Upper caste' seats often have a strong Muslim population too but no party risks fielding Muslim here.

There are 172 constituencies that have Muslim, Sikh and Christian influence.
Really!

But in the 125 upper caste seats, the factor of religion doesn't work, it says.

There are 79 constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 42 for Scheduled Tribes (ST) out of 543* (545) seats in the Lok Sabha. Of  course, Dalits (SCs) and Tribals (STs) can contest from un-reserved seats too.

So out of the remaining 432 seats, Bhaskar has identified seats that have a trend of winnability among a particular religion or a group. Many places have huge backward (OBC) population too but there isn't focus on their voting and election pattern.

Muslim vote can tilt balance in 92 constituencies 

The report says that 92 constituencies have Muslim influence. There are many constituencies in Kashmir, Kerala, UP and West Bengal that have 65-95% Muslims.  Then, there are constituencies like Laccadives, Kishanganj (Bihar), Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh) too.

The example is Assam's Dhubri where Muslim candidates win. AUDF's Badruddin Ajmal contested and won from here, defeating the Congress. Over all, seats that have more than 20% Muslims are included in list where the minority swing can make or mar candidates' chances.

An interesting example is Araria seat in Bihar. Now, Araria has 41% Muslim population. Yet, seven Muslims were in the fray, and hence BJP's Pradeep Kumar Singh, won Loktantrik Janshakti Party's Zakir Husain by a margin of 2,000 votes. Of these 92 seats, most of them are in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, West Bengal and Kerala, apart from J&K.

16 seats have Christian electorate's influence

There are 16  seats that have Christian influence. An example is Ernakulum in Kerala that has 38.8% Christian vote or South Goa. Then, there are many constituencies in North East and some other places in central and eastern India where Christian vote is decisive.

The Christian candidates win from Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur. Also, there are pockets in certain regions of South Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. In a few constituencies in Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh, too they have limited impact. 

Sikhs are a major factor in 16 constituencies

Also, there are 16 seats where Sikhs are an important factor and decide outcome of the election results, like Bathinda that has over 75% Sikh voter. Sikhs are mostly concentrated in Punjab-Haryana region in North India.

The other seats include Amritsar 77%,  Sangrur 74%, Jalandhar 38%, Ludhiana 58%, Anandpur Sahib 57%, Fatehgarh Sahib 58%, Firozpur 51%, Patiala 55%, Gurdaspur 44%, Hoshiarpur 39%. Also, there are constituencies liek Chandigarh, Sirsa (Haryana) and Sri Ganga Nagar (Rajasthan).

FOR THE READERS:

Now, that you have seen these trends and statistics, there is a message for you. You don't need to blindly believe every 'fact'. Anything can happen in election. It is not purely religious or regional line on which a person votes always. With polls barely two months from now, you will see analyses and more reports.

See more on elections 2014 in upcoming posts.

[Report published on March 10, 2014. Link to Dainik Bhaskar's Epaper. See page 1 and with graphic on inside page of the same day's edition, if they remain in archive. Alternative text link is HERE]

[*India's lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha has 545 members, 543 of them are elected while two are nominated]

BJP or Congress: Who will win the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, form the next government at the Centre?

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Speculations have already begun as to who is going to form the government after the upcoming 2014 general elections?

The recent survey conducted by AC-Nielsen that was shown on TV channel, 'ABP News' (formerly Star), has led to a fresh debate over prospects of the two major coalitions.

Whether it's going to be Congress-led UP that is projecting its youthful face Rahul Gandhi [along with Manmohan Singh as future PM once again] after having ruled the country for the two consecutive terms or BJP-led NDA which is banking on Narendra Modi?

The results of the survey [opinion poll] are quite interesting. It was conducted between May 1 and 10 and it predicts the number of seats to various parties, if the polls were held now, given the current mood of the electorate in the country.

I saw the survey on TV and here are my observations. First, let's see what are the results of this survey. Have a look at the figures and then we can analyse. First, Uttar Pradesh [UP] that sends the maximum number of seats [80] to the Parliament:

Samajwadi Party {SP] 24
Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] 23
Bahujan Samaj Party [BSP] 21
Congress 6
Rashtriya Lok Dal [RLD] 5

For, Maharashtra [48], the statistics suggest:

Congress 12
BJP 17
Shiv Sena 12
NCP 4
MNS 1

West Bengal [42] is another major state.

Left Front [CPM-CPI-Forward Bloc] 18
Trinamool Congress [TMC] 14
Congress 9
BJP 0

Bihar [40] is also a key state and any major change in number of seats can turn the tables for either of the coalitions. The premise was that JDU and BJP are still together here while Congress and RJD are not in an alliance. (If there is an alliance between Congress, RJD & LJP, it'll be bad for NDA, suggests the survey)

JDU 24
BJP 10
Congress 3
RJD 2

In Delhi, the survey gives five seats to BJP and two to Congress. What about Aam Admi Party (AAP)? Zilch! The survey shows that as per the mood in the country, NDA will be ahead of UPA. The bigger coalition is more likely to form the government, isn't it?

Predicting the Picture: How the Lok Sabha 2014 would look like:

NDA 206
UPA 136
Left 34
REST 167

So shall we accept this survey and the projections?

The survey shows Congress' vote share at 20% and that of BJP at over 31%. Really! That seems a bit far-fetched. Congress is definitely not having a great time due to the scams but these figures are still not too convincing.

Even if BJP gets 206 seats, will it be able to find the allies? It must be remembered that this survey shows the figure of REST [THIRD FRONT] at 167 and along with Left Front their strength will be over 200. So apart from NDA and UPA, there will be a huge block, and this hints at a real 'khichdi' or the fractured mandate.

What can be faulty in these projections

The survey shows Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi enjoying 36% support for the post of Prime Minister (PM) compared to Rahul Gandhi (13%), Manmohan Singh (12%), Mulayam Singh (5%), Nitish Kumar (3%) and Sushma Swaraj (2%). [Rahul plus Manmohan makes it 25, which is not too bad, given that it is urban centric poll]

As always, the surveys are mostly conducted in Cities. In urban areas, BJP has traditionally been strong and hence they surveys often go in BJP's favour. In UP, the BJP may not get as much seats. For the last 20 years, such polls have generally given more seats to BJP.

In last election, all channels predicted 140 seats for SP in UP Assembly but it went on capturing more than 200 seats in the Vidhan Sabha. The reason is that a section of SP or BSP voter isn't as vocal about his preference. Muslims often say that they would vote for Congress but end up voting for the third parties just like Dalits voted en masse for BSP but not many of them accepted it in front of others.

We keep hearing a lot about NaMo factor but Congress won the Karnataka election. It also won the polls in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Clearly, the corporate support and the excessive hype in media hasn't materialised as much on the ground.

What can happen in a year?

Elections are almost a year from now. In the current situation, Congress is not going to have Parliamentary elections along with Assembly elections by year end. The 16th General Elections are likely to be held in May 2014.

By then, it expects to gain by Right to Food  Bill and other popular schemes. It has changed its campaign style also. Have you noticed the recent advertisements on TV, targeting the young generation? On social media i.e. Twitter and Facebook, it has locked horns with RSS and BJP that once ruled online opinion.

Of course, there is a disillusionment [largely in urban India] with regard to Congress due to a spate of scams. It is also battling incumbency, which will be a major factor. But one must remember that despite all these factors Congress has consistently been winning state elections.

The BJP has its own woes

The problem for the BJP is that it can't just rely on Congress doing bad. The BJP has to increase its number of seats significantly. Where will it get them? In MP, Chhattisgarh, it has reached its peak and the scenario isn't as rosy for it. Party workers openly say that the tally will go down in these two states.

In Karnataka, it has no good prospects either. If Rajnath Singh fails to revive BJP in UP, the figure of 206 looks far ahead. Congress may lose seats in Andhra Pradesh. It is going to a be vital state. But will Nara Chandrababu Naidu ally with the BJP. No chance.

Can there be such a major shift?

The 2009 elections had given a mandate to Congress-led UPA. Congress had more than 200 seats while BJP had just 115. Can there be a complete reversal? If it happens, then only the BJP can hope to get more allies and be able to form the government.

If the BJP alone gets 180 plus and with its allies, reaches 220-225, then it will be in a position to form the government. The SP-BSP may have 40-50 seats, and along with Left, RJD and a few small parties, make it 100 seats. It is this vote coming from UP, West Bengal or Southern India which hurts the BJP-led coalition, the most.

The 'key' States and the parties to watch out

Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Tamil Nadu will be the key states. J Jayalalitha's AIADMK can play a major role. If she manages to win Tamil Nadu, then BJP can expect to garner her support. Not Naidu, but Jagan Mohan Reddy is another person who may go to the BJP. The role of BJD supremo Navin Patnayak will also be crucial.

Can West Bengal's voter again turn towards the Left? There are several questions. The voters' mood will be more visible by the year-end. The Left is against Congress. The 'secular' SP and BSP are rivals but at the Centre both these anti-Congress parties, also support the UPA.

Majority of voter lives in Rural India, not Cities

The agencies conducting these polls remain urban centric. Less than 1/3rd of constituencies were touched. Just 33,000 voters were quizzed. The sample size needs to be much bigger in a country like India. Here people play games with the surveyors [or questionnaires] and even give wrong answers. The feeling is that, 'Why should I tell them what's in my mind?'

India is too big and complex. It is next to impossible for any mathematical formula to make a guess or predit the results at the national level. Here, there are four and even five cornered contests in many constituencies, and people don't vote for a Prime Minister, rather, they go for party. Predictions of victory and loss are really tough.

While the BJP and Congress have now formed a mindset that it's time that either of them should govern the nation, not these smaller parties, reality is different. In case, both Congress and BJP remain under 150 or around, you can not rule out chance of Mayawati or J Jayalalitha, emerging the dark horse.

In fact, where the Congress is losing, the BJP is not gaining. The gainer is a regional party. An astonishing 47% vote is going to the regional parties, says R Jagannathan, in an Analysis here.

Let's wait and watch.