Eyes on Muslim population in Bihar: Will 1.75 crore Muslims tilt the balance in 2015 Assembly election?

As the crucial election for Bihar assembly approaches, the focus is on the Muslim electorate in the state.

The question is will Bihar Muslims solidly support the Nitish Kumar-led JDU-RJD coalition.

Or will Asaduddin Owaisi's entry into the state would lead to polarisation on communal lines.

Owaisi has targeted Seemanchal, a backward region that has a huge Muslim population, for his rally.

MIM's entry has energised a section of Muslim youth. There is a chance that in Seemanchal, there will be an affect on JDU-RJD's prospects because of Majlis. The possibility is that it will not only divide Muslim but will also lead to consolidation of BJP's core vote?


Bihar has over 1.75 crore Muslims, accounting for 17% population in State

Bihar has the third highest population of Muslims in the country, after Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bengal (in numbers, not percentage). While UP has over 4 crore Muslims and Bengal has 2.45 crore Muslims.

As per 2011 census, population of  Bihar was 10.41 crore. The percentage of Muslims as per the latest census (religious figures released only a few months ago), the percentage was around 16.9 (roughly 17).

Till now, it was believed that Muslims would vote en bloc for the RJD-JDU-Congress coalition.

Hence, it was felt that their vote would not be divided unlike past when minorities' votes were divided between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal.

But, jointly, JDU-RJD-Congress have a support of over 50% electorate--at least, on paper.

It gives them the edge, as reflected in opinion polls too. However, the coming few weeks would determine if the 'secular forces' would take off or lose steam.

The BJP campaign is led by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He is using his oratory and his tested skills to capture the imagination of the Biharis. A few more weeks and we will find out whom Bihar electorate hand over reins of the State.

How media turned Nitish Kumar from hero to villain within months!

Just refresh your memory and you will recall how Nitish Kumar was the darling of media, till just a few months ago.

Whenever there was a mention of the Bihar chief minister, the word 'Sushasan' or 'Good Governance' was used to describe his achievements.

It was routinely said that he had brought a turnaround in Bihar, from the era of Lalu Prasad Yadav's 'jungle raj'.

After Lalu was ousted from the power by the JDU-BJP combine, Nitish Kumar was seen as a true leader, a man who was changing Bihar.

It was said that crime rate had come down in Bihar, development was again visible and the mafia had been brought under control. The backward Bihar was now a progressive state, we were told.

Those who don't live in the State, obviously, have no idea about the ground realities, and are dependent on media to understand the 'change'.

In fact, there was so much positive news about Bihar, that we even heard how advertisements were being given to newspapers, in order to get good coverage. Negative stories were not being reported at all.  If it was happening, it wasn't good either.

Remember how Forbesganj firing was totally blacked out from media. Now within the last few months, ever since, he had a fallout with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Nitish Kumar is no longer the 'Vikas Purush'. All positive coverage has gone away.

No longer, we hear the word 'Sushasan Kumar'. In fact, there are reports now that the law-and-order situation is bad. Really! The 63-year-old leader who comes from the JP movement, just like his bete noire RJD's Lalu Yadav, is now miffed with media.

In a function, a bitter Nitish Kumar asked the photographer that why was he taking the photographs, when they won't be published them in the newspaper.This is in sharp contrast to the earlier situation when Nitish Kumar got excessive coverage.

In fact, a section was uncomfortable, and felt that due to huge money in the form of Ads, the TV channels and newspaper in Bihar, have 'sold themselves out'. [media bhi business hai bhai]

Now JDU leaders rue that the media no longer gives them coverage as it is in the hands of BJP. In India, media is largely independent, despite the political affiliations of the owners of the media houses.

Lot of people outside Bihar wonder how it is happening so fast. What is the true picture? Something is surely amiss here.

With Mukesh Ambani's growing stakes in media houses, it is suspected that there is growing influence of owners on journalists.

In news rooms, there is a clear order that stories against BJP's future PM wouldn't be telecast. But to say, that Nitish Kumar has been blacked out just because his opposition to Narendra Modi and the JDU's severing ties with BJP in Bihar, is almost unbelievable. Is it that the media has been swept away by the 'Modi wave'?

For eight years, he was doing everything right. Even eight months ago, he was doing great. He was looked at as a statesman and was positioned as the future Prime Minister. However, it is a fact that Nitish Kumar is no longer a favourite among media men.

How this 'hero' to 'zero' transition took place! It is not a great mystery. But the change in coverage does have impact on people who don't belong to Bihar and live outside the state. Without firsthand experience or information about whether things are improving or they have worsened, they are at loss to understand such a transformation in media views.

What's the reality. And the mystery behind the change in image! Just a few more months and we will know.