Opinion poll suggests Mamata Banerjee's TMC to win in West Bengal again, LDF comeback in Kerala, Jayalalitha victory in Tamil Nadu but setback for Congress

Election Commission of India (ECI) has announced schedule for the forthcoming assembly elections in four states.

With dates announced, already opinion polls are being commissioned to gauge the public mood in these states.

So who will win the election? That's a matter of speculation, however, C Voter is the first to come with a survey. It suggests that Congress may face setback, as it is likely to lose two states viz. Assam and Kerala, where it is in power.

The four states that are going to polls include West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala. BJP is not very strong in these states.

However, it has a significant vote in Assam, and its alliance with the BJP may bring it to power in the State. It is not a power to reckon with in West Bengal even now, but party leaders are hopeful of a good show.

In WB, the main fight is between Trinamool Congress and CPI (M) in West Bengal. In Assam, the contest is between Congress and BJP-AGP alliance though Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF may corner enough seats to emerge as kingmaker after the election.

In Tamil Nadu, it is the traditional AIADMK against DMK fight. In Kerala, the Communist front--Left Democratic Front (LDF) is likely to make a comeback.


OPINION POLL [INDIA TV-C VOTER]

WEST BENGAL: Mamata seems set to form government, Communists may improve their tally but Congress to lose more seats compared to last election, unless there is a tie-up between Congress and Left.

TMC 156 
CPI-M 114
Congress 13
BJP 4
Others 7

KERALA: The Communists could return to power again. Congress-led UDF may lose. BJP is not going to do very well and the state remains polarised between Congress and Left coalitions.

LDF 89 
UDF 49
NDA 1
Others 1

ASSAM: In Assam, BJP-AGP alliance is doing better as per the opinion poll. Tarun Gogoi-led Congress may get less number of seats. However, Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF can have a tie-up with Congress, post-polls. Congress looks down but is not out of the race.

BJP alliance 57 
Congress 44
AIUDF 19
Others 6

TAMIL NADU: Tamil Nadu has always been a tough state for pollsters and predictions have gone horribly wrong here in the past. However, it seems despite anti-incumbency, J Jayalalitha's AIADMK is performing better than DMK. But a slight vote swing can change the results dramatically.

AIADMK 116 
DMK 101
Others 17

Mamata Banerjee reins in VHP, stops Pravin Togadia's from entering West Bengal

Mamata Banerjee has done something which the self-styled secular Congress could never do--taking a tough stand against Praveen Togadia.

The TMC government in West Bengal had said that it would not allow the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) chief to enter West Bengal.

The government remained firm and Togadia was barred from entering the state. Also, West Bengal government detained nearly 300 VHP activists who were marching towards the venue of their meet in Kolkata.

Now the VHP leader is crying foul and is criticising the WB government. Left with no option, Togadia had to cancel his visit. Trinamool government should definitely be congratulated for taking the step.

While Togadia talks of right to free speech and says that his voice was muzzled. But the VHP leader is known for his inflammatory speeches, particularly, venomous and vitriolic words against Muslims and Christians.

CONGRESS NEVER ACTED TOUGH AGAINST TOGADIA

He has delivered countless hate speeches that have injected poison in the minds of citizens, city after city, for decades. But Congress could never rein in Togadia and other such leaders of the Sangh Parivar.

In fact, when the party [Congress] was in power in most of the states, it never acted tough on hate speeches. Its leaders seemed indifferent. FIRs were seldom registered and arrests were totally out of question.

While MIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi's was arrested after being booked for a hate speech, a similar hate speech by Togadia in Maharashtra didn't lead to his arrest [LINK]. Congress government registered FIR only after TV channels aired parts of the speech repeatedly.

SEE THIS ABP News Video: Why Togadia not arrested for his hate speech?

However, there was no arrest. In fact, in most cases, even if FIR was registered, Congress governments later withdrew them. This emboldened the lumpen elements. Congress leaders talk of secular ethos but such double standards have hurt the party.

However, they don't seem to learn any lesson. In UP, Samajwadi Party, which also claims to be secular, hasn't taken similar tough decisions.

SP continues to bar MIM leaders from addressing rallies but when it comes to VHP,  Hindu Vahini or Bajrang Dal, it allows them a free un.

For the moment, it is a laudable step on part of West  Bengal government. Just because a group or organisation has a large following, state governments can't succumb to their demands. Hope, Mamata Banerji.

1. LINK to Pravin Togadia hate speech. SEE
2. Link to Pravin Togadia entry banned READ
3. Why was Pravin Togadia not arrested till now CHECK

Urdu newspapers hail Mamata Banerjee's success

Mamata Banerji's Trinamool Congress won the polls for civic bodies in West Bengal, which has jolted the Left front.

Though Urdu press appeared backing Mamata, the reaction in some of the newspapers has been euphoric.

Kolkata-based Akhbar-e-Mashriq [see page on the left] devoted the entire front page and inside pages, hailing the victory.

The headline 'Ghuroor Gharat', translated as End of Arrogance, along with the caption about Trinamool's wave sweeping across Shahar-e-Nishat [Kolkata or City of Nishat ie Joy], shows the obvious support for the party.

Not only front page but inside pages also have couplets on Mamata Bannerji. Delhi-based papers didn't go overboard but poets have eulogised Mamata Banerjee and couplets hailing her win, have been published in most papers including Roznama Sahara. So much poetry, including Qatas!

Was the Left front government too bad for Muslims? On law-and-order front, it kept the state riot free. But after Sachar commission report, the discomfort of Muslims was obvious as they formed 25% of state population but were nowhere seen in services.

Perhaps, a 32 year rule was too long and all sections wanted change. The left retained its core support for decades due to the land reforms initiated in the past. But Nandigram and Singur angered rural folk. Muslims who are mostly inhabiting rural areas got more disturbed.

Though Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and his CPM comrades kept on claiming that the minorities would be given due share, the recent selection of 800 government employees in clerical posts, again proved that the promises were hollow as not even 2% Muslims were inducted.

Mamata is known to be mercurial and nobody knows how much change she can bring about in West Bengal, if she manages to win the Assembly elections. But, presently its Mamata's moment, after routing one of the most enduring leftist reign.