Opinion poll suggests Mamata Banerjee's TMC to win in West Bengal again, LDF comeback in Kerala, Jayalalitha victory in Tamil Nadu but setback for Congress

Election Commission of India (ECI) has announced schedule for the forthcoming assembly elections in four states.

With dates announced, already opinion polls are being commissioned to gauge the public mood in these states.

So who will win the election? That's a matter of speculation, however, C Voter is the first to come with a survey. It suggests that Congress may face setback, as it is likely to lose two states viz. Assam and Kerala, where it is in power.

The four states that are going to polls include West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala. BJP is not very strong in these states.

However, it has a significant vote in Assam, and its alliance with the BJP may bring it to power in the State. It is not a power to reckon with in West Bengal even now, but party leaders are hopeful of a good show.

In WB, the main fight is between Trinamool Congress and CPI (M) in West Bengal. In Assam, the contest is between Congress and BJP-AGP alliance though Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF may corner enough seats to emerge as kingmaker after the election.

In Tamil Nadu, it is the traditional AIADMK against DMK fight. In Kerala, the Communist front--Left Democratic Front (LDF) is likely to make a comeback.


OPINION POLL [INDIA TV-C VOTER]

WEST BENGAL: Mamata seems set to form government, Communists may improve their tally but Congress to lose more seats compared to last election, unless there is a tie-up between Congress and Left.

TMC 156 
CPI-M 114
Congress 13
BJP 4
Others 7

KERALA: The Communists could return to power again. Congress-led UDF may lose. BJP is not going to do very well and the state remains polarised between Congress and Left coalitions.

LDF 89 
UDF 49
NDA 1
Others 1

ASSAM: In Assam, BJP-AGP alliance is doing better as per the opinion poll. Tarun Gogoi-led Congress may get less number of seats. However, Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF can have a tie-up with Congress, post-polls. Congress looks down but is not out of the race.

BJP alliance 57 
Congress 44
AIUDF 19
Others 6

TAMIL NADU: Tamil Nadu has always been a tough state for pollsters and predictions have gone horribly wrong here in the past. However, it seems despite anti-incumbency, J Jayalalitha's AIADMK is performing better than DMK. But a slight vote swing can change the results dramatically.

AIADMK 116 
DMK 101
Others 17

Of Kolkata visits, Muslims and Bengali Bhadralok: Difference between Leftist government and Trinamool's rule in West Bengal

By Ather Farooqui

My first visit to West Bengal was in the year 1989. This was followed by subsequent tours in 2010 and 2014. Kolkata [Calcutta] was quite an intimidating town then.

The infrastructure had crumbled and there was a sense of  fear in the metropolis. It was tough to walk on the streets as there was no place on footpaths.

My visit was about collecting statistics about Urdu education. Hence, I met CPM
leader Salik Lakhnawi.

When I contested his opinion and said that CPM hasn't done anything for Urdu and told him that the class conflict between Bengali and non-Bengali was similar to the situation in Maharashtra, he told me that if someone else would have said it he would have been in jail for such a statement.

That was the end of the conversation as I left the tea in the middle and left the place. The visit in 2010 was short but travelling on the streets and passing by mohallas, one could see the poor condition of Muslims who were living in the Communist ruled state.

West Bengal hadn't moved ahead a bit and seemed to be stuck in time. But when in March 2014, I again went to West Bengal, it was an altogether different state. I was surprised to see that there was no sense of fear in the air.

Left leadership is not used to learning from its past mistakes. Anjuman Taraqqi Urdu Hind's branch is active here.

I found that there were issues about Urdu education but there was no unhappiness with regard to the State government.

Bengal's middle-class or the Bhadralok lives in a world of its own. The Telegraph is their favourite newspaper.

Comparatively, it gives much more prominence to international stories than local reports. This class still lives in the world in which Upper Class society of North India lived in till 1970s.

There is tremendous greenery in rural West Bengal. I travelled from Kolkata to Darjeeling via New Jalpaiguri, for ten days. No where I could see sign that CPM is a force here. There were party flags on very few houses.

In Darjeeling, GJM is the strong party that had supported Jaswant Singh in the last election, with the
hope that BJP would come to power. Unlike North India, in West  Bengal, one has to pass through extremely bad roads to reach the hill stations here.

There is huge tourism revenue generated but the money is not spent on infrastructure. As a result, there is a strong support for creating Gorkhaland state in West Bengal.

[This is a guest article. It was originally published in Roznama Sahara, a multi-edition Urdu newspaper. Ather Farooqui is secretary general of Anjuman Taraqqi-i-Urdu Hind]