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Monday, September 19, 2011

Can Narendra Modi become Prime Minister of India?

Can just a hug do it?
The hype surrounding Narendra Modi's fast has once again generated speculations that Narendra Modi is the BJP's next Prime Ministerial candidate but can Modi ever become India's Prime Minister?

Though it is not an impossible proposition, if things are analyzed in perspective, one would find that his chances of becoming Prime Minister are quite low, at least in the upcoming election 2014.

Speculation is not easy, at least in politics but one can try to do a dispassionate analysis.

To begin with, the BJP doesn't have even 150 seats in Parliament. In fact, it has a mere 116 seats in 545 member Lok Sabha. Did you remember this figure! The party knows it well. Even when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was at the helm, it could get 180-odd seats with difficulty despite his acceptability.

A Modi-led BJP can't have Mamata Bannerjee, Chandrababu Naidu, even JDU rallying around it. How will it manage to get the seats? The compulsion of coalition era politics is such that most parties in respective states wouldn't like to be seen as close to a party led by Modi.

In no Indian state, a regional party--ranging from Trinamool Congress to Telugu Desam or even JDU wishes to be linked to him. Let's imagine a situation where BJP manages to ride the anti-corruption wave, the anti-incumbency factor against Congress-led UPA and also somehow gets one or two allies [say J Jayalalithaa, even though she won't concede seats to BJP in Tamil Nadu where the party has little support], it needs real numbers in Parliament.

Unless electorate in Uttar Pradesh (UP), that has 80 Lok Sabha seats, suddenly get into a 'change regime' mode and dump Mayawati, the BJP can't hope much in terms of MPs figure in Lok Sabha. In Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, the party has already been getting optimum seats and still failed to get anywhere near to the magic number.
Will they let him go ahead so easily!

Undoubtedly, a section of the vocal urban middle-class supports him. The voice of this section always gets amplified and is heard. TV channels and media also commit the same mistake.

Remember, the India Shining campaign! The BJP had almost believed that it was going to get a second term but nothing worked out for NDA then.

The point is that even after Anna Hazare's anti-corruption agitation on the issue of Lok Pal, the failure of Congress in tackling terrorism and the rising prices, elections are an altogether different phenomenon. When a leader like LK Advani couldn't become acceptable, how could Modi ever be?

Rajiv Gandhi has received tremendous flak for his role in the anti-Sikh riots. But there was no satellite TV then. Even in LK Advani's rath yatra, the video news casettes had just arrived. But Gujarat pogrom--the communal riots on mass scale and the genocide--were all seen on live TV and thus they evoke far greater response.

True, Narendra Modi has now emerged stronger, has wider acceptability and has managed to change his image in popular perception as a chief minister whose sole plank is development. He has many supporters in the corporate world. But whenever his name is mentioned, the same media also starts raising questions.

When he began fast, it got great coverage. But the protests, detention of riot victims, issues raised by Mallika Sarabhai, again brought controversy to the fast. Leave the issue of asking for apology or questioning about riot victims' rehabilitation, the officers like Sanjeev Bhatt and B Sreekumar, will continue to play spoilsport for the BJP.

Then the verdicts in riot cases like the ones in which BJP ex-minister Mayaben Kodnani is charged are awaited. Besides, cases of extra-judicial killings and encounters in Gujarat are under various stages of trial in higher courts. There are many other issues.
Gujarat to Delhi: Can Modi make it?

Yet, Modi has succeeded in getting quite far in terms of image makeover. Even if BJP manages to get 200-odd seats and finds allies, the question is that whether the top leaders like Advani, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj let him wear the crown so easily.

Nitin Gadkari, who has managed to steer the party at the critical juncture, in the right direction, has kept a low-profile all the while, and kept divisive [communal] issues on the back-burner. Gadkari is an RSS favourite and only the naive can overlook him.

The Chief Ministers ranging from Raman Singh to Shivraj Singh Chouhan are almost as secular as other Congress CMs [except in cases when RSS makes a push]. Will they accept it?

The more media pushes his name, the more other top BJP leaders get insecure [privately]. And can the ambitious Nitish Kumar ever let it happen? Frankly, it doesn't seem too easy a task for Modi. It is really a long way for him. Of course, miracles can happen and if, as section of media is speculating, he is destined to create history, then nothing can stop him.

Personally I feel, 2014 elections are too near. I think despite praises showered on him, he is far from having that pan-Indian acceptability. There are lot of stumbling blocks in his way. He has clearly won over Gujarat but I think for Modi, Hanoz Dilli Door Ast. Of course, one can't be too sure for 2019. Let's wait and watch.

Right now, my hunch is that BJP [and Sangh] would use his persona and his strong pro-right wing [Hindutva] image to mobilize middle-class electorate [and a section of other voters] just to get more seats and for creating a wave in its favour but if it comes to forming government, the party would instead go for a 'moderate' or a 'choice of consensus'

19 comments:

Anser Azim said...

Nice narration!! I saw the disgusting skull capped guy touching modis feet... Question remains how many from UP and Bihar will imitate him!! Muslims in Gujrat seem to be frightened as Mr Vastanvi's statement and now this ugly picture!!!http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Narendra-Modi-refuses-to-put-on-skull-cap-offered-by-Muslim-cleric/articleshow/10040530.cms

Anonymous said...

I am also disgusted by modi courting muslims.

Why court muslims?

MODI FOR PM

Anser Azim said...

I believe anonymous forgot word "Murderer" !!This should read "Murderer MODI FOR PM"!!!

Anonymous said...

Oh no mr ANSER AZIM.

Modi gave hindus justice.

He could have become hindu's OSAMA, but look at what he is doing now. Courting hindu killer muslims.


I saw your blog picture of bangladeshi muslim crying for Palestine.

What a hypocrisy!!!!!!!!!!

1947 Bangla muslims killed hindus.

3 million ( Largly hindus )killed in 1970-1971 by muslims.

10 million ( Mostly Hindus )had to flee bangladesh there ancestral home.

Bangladeshi kept bihari muslims in refugee camp.



Bangladesh

1947-28% hindus population
2010-9% Hindus.


Height of MUSLIM hypocrisy.

The same bangladeshi are infiltrating into india.

Almost 3-4 crores bangladeshi in india.

Anonymous said...

Oh mr anser azim is now silent.

Modi this and modi that.

Modi faught back against the massacre of hindus in train.

indscribe said...

@Anon: Why are you not posting with your real name!

Anonymous said...

Well cause i don't wanna die.

:) :)

Wouldn't you say that muslim world is full of hypocrisy.

When Hindu-sikh were wiped out from pakistan and in bangladesh it's continuous process. But hindus have to LOVE muslims.


I do blame my coward RACE of hindus.

Anser Azim said...

ANON: You made me laugh!! Meri Dhair Saree Duain tumhare saath hain!! Best wishes Dr Azim
PS: Read good books not the distorted versions of History...

indscribe said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
indscribe said...

Anon: I don't understand how an Indian Muslim can answer for what Pakistan has done.

The treatment of minorities in Pakistan is far from exemplary. But it is equally bad for Christians, Shias, Ahmedis, even other sects of Muslims.

Still, there is substantial Hindu population in Sindh, districts like Thar Pakar, and the Gujarat region of Pakistan.

Of course, Pakistan has a bad track record when it comes to minority rights.

No one can deny this but there is also a very strong civil society voice now emerging in that country which speaks for minorities and supports them.

As far as I understand there are no such pogroms like anti-Sikh 1984 pogrom or anti-Muslim Ahmedabad riots or Hashimpura, Firozabad, Meerut, Moradabad riots {where thousands of Muslims are killed in one go]....till last week's Gopalgarh killings.

It is not just Muslim world but true of the entire sub-continent. On all issues ranging from politics to personal life, society and sexuality.

You also do same. If you have strong views, speak openly or make your identity public. To write anything, without taking responsibility, is the easiest a person can do.

Many like you have over the years been affected by right-wing propaganda and got brainwashed so much that for every failure, you see the sole problem: MUSLIM.

No amount of reason can ever make you think or write rationally. Bangladeshis enter India, so do Nepalis.

But Nepalis are Hindus so you won't mind, even if Nepal was never part of India and Bangladesh shares common culture with West Bengal and was part of India till 1947.

Poor go in search of livelihood just like rural Punjabis go to Europe in search of jobs.

First understand the real problems, issues of hunger & humanity, then talk of hypocrisy. It's the easiest job to write a comment that speaks ill of an entire community.

suds said...

Bangladeshi immigrants are different from nepalis because the country was partioned to create east pak and the area was cleansed of Hindus. Now it is not ok for them to come back. If the Muslims thought there was a common heritage the country would not have been partitioned. the Muslims of UP and Bihar overwhelmingly supported the partition. To gloss all this over and compare nepalis with Bangladeshs is hypocrisy. such a fuss about modi not wearing the skullcap is funny. if modi had given a picture of saraswati in return what wudnthe maulana do? Let it adorn his drawing room?

indscribe said...

Suds: I think Muslims hardly made any fuss, the TV channels created it.

If a man goes and gives a topi, Modi didn't need to wear it. Of course, he could have dealt it better by taking it, and putting it in pocket.

Anyway, he is a politician, he knows best what he has to do. I am least bothered about that.
--------------------------

How many Muslims wanted partition? Was there any referendum? You know well that league barely got any votes in Muslim dominated areas.

If league is guilty, Congress was hand in glove and must share the blame.

For ordinary people, the basic issue is 'roti'. And they rarely talk of communal issues.

It is so called 'educated' who have 'internet' and who read books, who are more religious minded, and see at every thing thing with Hindu Muslim perspective.

Gemmi said...

Well, the post is realistic. Even if Modi becomes the BJP's candidate, the people will have the final say, and if a fifth of the population remains totally against him, it will be really difficult, if not impossible, for him to have any chance to reach the chair. But I do suspect that several non-North-Indian regional parties will really not be averse to supporting Modi if such an eventuality arises.

On the issue of illegality of immigration, I guess, the case of Nepalis and Bangladeshis are different. Nepalis can legally enter and stay in India for any number of years (so is perhaps the case for Indians entering Nepal). So Nepalis staying in India will not really be illegal immigrants unless they start claiming citizenship or other state benefits using fake documents. For Bangladeshis, their stay itself becomes illegal (this of course assuming that they either enter without legal entry permits or stay beyond the permitted duration).

Anser Azim said...

I think Gemmi has raised some interesting points and I agree with him. No Pakistani and Bangladeshi should be allowed to live in India or vice versa. These migrations are based upon economic reasons.. I wish India can stop this.. Here in USA there are 12 million illegal south Americans migrated solely for economic reasons without education and do all kind of low paid jobs.. The power and might of USA has failed..to stop this.. locate them and prosecute them even after 911..I know many Indians have migrated to all parts of the world for economic reasons even to UK, our colonizer.. I know when Pakistan was stable many Indian Muslims illegally migrated to Pakistan till the eighties before the invasion of Afghanistan that has changed the course of fortune for Pakistan. There is no denial that many north Indian Muslims supported the partition based upon many reasons including pre-partition riots etc. But muslims who were against partion represent the third color of Tiranga amd have their roots to India as any other citizen. But these things are part of the past.. In my opinion a stable and democratic India should not have leaders who have extreme nationalistic and religious approach..Mr Modi who has blood on his hand should not lead a country that was founded and is known for her Gandhian ideals!!!

suds said...

I did not say Muslims created a fuss but the Maulana did. as for partition, am surprised that you don't know that the league swept all Muslim seats including the ones in madras in the elections held before independence. it is true that there was no universal franchise. people who voted for the league were educated middle class and upper class muslims. Though very few of them realised that there wud be an exchanr of population etc. the congress leaders to quote Nehru were tired after all those years spent in jail. He thought socialism wud prevail over political Islam and treated Jinnah with contempt.History is what it is though u are in no way responsible for it

Anonymous said...

Often,it is observed,that the persons indulging in any discussion on a public issue, either talk or write at a tangent to the central issue!
The question demands projecting our thoughts into the unknown future.But many getstuck inthe slush ofthepast!
To answer the question, one has to:
1. Imagine what India would look like in 2014?
2. What problems(internal & external) it is likely to face during 2014 to 2019?
3. Has Modi the "needed knowledge, skill and attitudes" to answer the challenges of future shocks?
First ask and then get the right answer !

Anonymous said...

Indian Muslims are not intelligent enough to understand appeasement politics,but at some levels when BJP is in power minorties feel insecure.That issue was cleared, when Mr vajpayee made developments and country progressed .There was minimal corruption during his regime.My father worked as a Bureaucrat during his time and he did mentioned that BJP is not as bad as we think it is,country progressed largely during BJP perioud ,but few blots maligned there Image.Mr Modi after godhra has changed the face of gujarat,but few social activist are trying to spoil his image by propaganda, I wish if BJP changes there stance,Muslims in india will support them.

Anzar Shah..

Anonymous said...

Dear Editor ,
I got flaunted with your words and that influence me against modi but if it goes to sensible decision for the sake of country I can vote him but the decision is limited to personal . Now what my views are expressing me to advocate Modi to get the country on the path of development . From last 60 years we are voting on the name of Relegion caste creed. That led the minorities to be uneducated almost 3/4th of the total population . Please vote to the right candidate and right party

Anonymous said...

Dear Editor ,
I got flaunted with your words and that influence me against modi but if it goes to sensible decision for the sake of country I can vote him but the decision is limited to personal . Now what my views are expressing me to advocate Modi to get the country on the path of development . From last 60 years we are voting on the name of Relegion caste creed. That led the minorities to be uneducated almost 3/4th of the total population . Please vote to the right candidate and right party